FiNETIK – Asia and Latin America – Market News Network

Asia and Latin America News Network focusing on Financial Markets, Energy, Environment, Commodity and Risk, Trading and Data Management

VAM: Vietnam Market Analysis August 2013

Admist concerns on capital outflows due to U.S Fed tapering and fear of Syria war, the market retreated quite badly in August with foreign net selling of USD 41.8mn across the 2 bourses. By the month-end, VN Index lost 3.7% to close at 472.7 whilst VN30 tumbled 1.72%. HNX was the best performer of the 3 indices when it only edged down 0.49%, closing at 61.19.

Read full analysis VAM Monthly Newsletter – August 2013.

Buoyant FDI continues to support recovery

As of 20th August, registered FDI reached USD 12.6bn, soaring 19.5% from a year earlier.Thiswas backed by 768 new projects mostly focusing on the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the FDI disbursement edged up 3.8% y-o-y to USD 7.6bn and became a key factor contributing to the marked improvements in production activities. Indeed, while the employment index for the manufacturing sector in SOEs and private sector showed a negative growth, that in FDI sector still increased 5.6% y-o-y. Besides, FDI enterprises continued to be the main driving force to push export as they are contributing more than 60% of export and USD 2.7bn of trade surplus. YTD export turnovers advanced 14.7% y-o-y as of end August, however the YTD trade balance still suffers little deficit of USD 577mn due to a higher pace of import growth.

CPI accelerates but is still under control

The August general consumer price index edged up 0.83% m-o-m compared to previous month. Consequently, the year on year headline CPI was lifted up to 7.5% y-o-y, from 7.29% y-o-y in July. While aggregate demand was still weak, cost push effect became the primary reason for the return of inflation, in which electricity and gasoline price was adjusted up 5% and 2%, respectively. The healthcare basket, which was adjusted up remarkably in Hanoi, clearly produced the strongest effect. Fortunately, it only contributed little effect to the month-on-month CPI growth. The government’s inflation target of 7-8% would likely be met provided that there is no significant shock of gasoline price in the rest of this year.

Fast tracking VAMC

Sector-wide NPL figure at the end of 1H2013 was announced at 4.65%. This figure was indeed encouraging as NPL has fallen sharply from 8% by the end of 2012. 30 credit institutions that had NPL higher than 3% will be forced to bring down NPL level to 3% by selling bad debts to VAMC. In a recent interview, VAMC’s CEO said that in the next 2 months VAMC will issue bonds to swap for VND 10 trillion worth of bad debts of 10 banks. Banks with highest NPL will be given priority to sell bad debt to VAMC. The speedy execution of VAMC hopefully would help to clean up sector-wide bad debt more swiftly by year end.

More banking resolution to restructure banking system comprehensively

The PM signed a Resolution that allows SBV to assign financially strong banks or SBV itself, if there is no appropriate bank, to purchase stakes in weak banks which were unable to increase their capital or restructure themselves. Strong banks are requested to assist weak banks in both finance and management until their conditions come back to normal or acquired by other parties. This supportive resolution, together with VAMC formation, has clearly demonstrated the government’s determination to restructurethe banking system and tackle the NPL issue.

 More details on raising foreign ownership limit (FOL) plan available

According to the HOSE, the proposal on issuing Non-Voting Depository Receipts (NVDRs) was submitted to MoF. With the same model as Thailand NVDRs, an SBV subsidiary will buy and hold 10% of total outstanding shares of listed companies and issue equivalent NVDRs to foreign investors. Foreign investors holding NVDRs will be fully entitled to company financial benefit, but not voting rights. NVDRs will be converted to normal shares when foreign room is open. This NVDRs model will be applied to all companies. However, we do not think it will happen soon this year due to the amount of preparation required.

 Our View – 8 months of the year has passed and the economy has started showing some modest improvements. Inflation is under control and the government’s target would be likely to be met.  More affordable borrowing cost is supporting production activities and making business environment more attractive.  In addition, gold market has been gradually stabilized as the gap between domestic and global prices has been falling to half of previous high level. These improvements in economic conditions have prompted us to believe that the economy seems right on track for a gradual recovery.  Furthermore, the government’s serious effort in restructuring the banking sector and the future lifting of foreign ownership limit gave us reasons to be (cautiously) optimistic about the market despite recent pullbacks due to external factors, which actually revealed buying opportunities for some good stocks we have been watching.

Source: VAM, 11.09.2013

 

Filed under: Services, Vietnam, , , , , , , , ,

Mexico Investment News Letter 07 June 2013

Mexico Is The Next China

“Mexico is the next China,” Ferrari North America CEO Marco Mattiacci said during a panel discussion today about the future of luxury.

Mexico and the cursed Dragon Mart

The closest People’s Republic of China President Xi Yinping came to China’s controversial top project in Mexico was on his Thursday visit to the Chichén Itzá archaeological site with President Enrique Peña Nieto.

China, Mexico vow broad cooperation as Xi visits; no trade pact soon

MEXICO CITY – China and Mexico promised broad cooperation on issues ranging from energy to mining and infrastructure during a state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday, but any free-trade pact between the emerging market powers is still some way off.

What does Xi see in Mexico?

Analysis: Much of Latin America has for years found in China a voracious trade partner. Mexico has found its fiercest competitor.

Death map’ of deserts aims to save lives of desperate Mexican migrants

Illegal immigration: Humane Borders support group charts bodies found in US-Mexico frontier to try to limit future tragedies

Grupo Gigante buys rest of Office Depot’s Mexican arm

MEXICO CITY – Mexican retailer Grupo Gigante on Tuesday said it purchased the 50 percent stake of the Mexican unit of U.S. office-supply store chain Office Depot Inc it did not already own in a deal worth 8.78 billion pesos ($691 million).

Heineken-Modelo Beer Probe Nears Mexico Agency Decision

Heineken NV (HEIA) and Grupo Modelo SAB, the dominant brewers in Mexico with brands such as Dos Equis and Corona, are nearing the end of an almost three-year-old government…

Pemex Mulls Bolsa Listing of Projects to Lower Funding Costs

Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico’s state- owned oil producer, is considering securitizing some assets in a way tailored to attract national pension funds to unlock money for its equipment needs.

Analysis: Mexico peso poised at precipice, may face much steeper fall

MEXICO CITY – Mexico’s peso could slide even further if convictions mount that the massive monthly U.S. monetary stimulus is nearing an end and lead to an exodus of foreign investors who have piled into Mexican markets.

1st Marijuana  “Starbuck” style Chain in the US by ex Microsoft Exec  using drug fighting former Mexican president Vincent Fox as marijuana grower

More projects of passenger trains in Mexico

With the Plan Nacional de Infraestructura 2013-2018 the routes that will be developed during the six year period will be made known, as well as the required investment.

The Mexico Paradox

In spite of the violence, illegal drug and arms trade, trucks continue to line up at the border in Ciudad Juarez Mexico.

Filed under: China, Latin America, Mexico, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Latin America: Investors News Letter 10 May 2013

Mexico

Mexico Industry Output Falls Three Times More Than Forecast

Mexico’s industrial production fell three times more than analysts forecast in March, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates for the second time since 2009 later this year.

Factbox: Key facts about Mexico’s tax system

MEXICO CITY – Mexico’s new government has promised a comprehensive review of its tax system, to be announced in the second half of 2013 along with an overhaul of energy policy.

Obama tells Mexicans a ‘new Mexico’ is emerging

US-Mexico Stereotypes Must Be Broken

America Movil sees material impact from Mexico telecom reform

Brazil

Despite winning top world trade job, even Brazil looks beyond WTO

Brazil campaigned hard to get the top job at the World Trade Organization this week but behind closed doors even it acknowledges that the WTO’s main mission – pushing forward in global trade talks – looks for the moment like a lost cause.

BM&FBovespa Quarterly Earnings Trail Estimates as Costs Increase

Petronas Malaysia bolsters Brazil’s Batista with $850 million oil-field buy

Venezuela’s Maduro gets firm Brazilian backing, trade

Brazilian M&A Picks Up as Asians Seek Cheaper Oilfields

Latin America

Argentina’s Deadbeat Special: Buy a 4% Bond or Go to Jail

Panama Canal Cuts Water Use as Drought Prompts Energy Rationing

Brazil’s Odebrecht plans $20 billion spend, targets Peru as key investment
CHICAGO TRIBUNE – Brazilian conglomerate Odebrecht plans to invest $20 billion globally over the next three years, mostly in Latin America and much of it in Peru

Saipem wins $500m offshore contracts in Latin America
– Italy-based engineering services provider Saipem has received new engineering and construction (E&C) offshore contracts, worth a total value of $500m, in Latin America.

APMT prepares for high growth markets
Although global container volumes are not predicted to grow as rapidly over the next five years as they have over the past decade, high growth emerging markets will require higher levels of productivity and rely heavily on expanded inland services

Cartagena aims to be a global megaport by 2017
The Colombian Caribbean port of Cartagena is undertaking extensive infrastructure and technology upgrades in an effort to be one of the world’s 30 best megaports by 2017.

Filed under: Argentina, Brazil, Central America, Chile, Colombia, Energy & Environment, Malaysia, Mexico, News, Peru, Risk Management, Venezuela, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Latin America: Investors News Letter 18 April 2013

MEXICO

Mexico Peso Declines as U.S. Earnings Crimp Outlook for Exports

Mexico says Nestle to sell Pfizer baby food business

MEXICO CITY – Swiss food giant Nestle will sell the assets of U.S. pharmaceutical company Pfizer’s baby food business in Mexico, a business it acquired globally in an $11.85 billion deal last year, Mexico’s competition watchdog said on Monday.

Analysis: Mexico’s smaller homebuilders set to gain as top three struggle

MEXICO CITY – Mexico’s top three homebuilders, facing heavy debt burdens and holding land where Mexicans no longer want to live, will sell fewer homes this year, leaving a market wide open for smaller rivals or even private equity funds to snap up business.

Mexican manufacturing: from sweatshops to high-tech motors

SILAO, Mexico – Made in Mexico is increasingly more likely to mean cars than clothes as the country’s manufacturing sector moves away from the low-skill, high-volume production lines of the past toward more sophisticated products.

VIP Interview: Enrique Peña Nieto, forging the future

Enrique Peña Nieto, President of Mexico, on a new spirit of democracy and cooperation, and the economic future of Mexico.

BRAZIL

Itau Bet on Stocks Outside Brazil Leads Latin America Funds

QItau Unibanco Holding SA has found a winning strategy for the Itau Latam Pacific mutual fund: avoiding shares from the bank’s home country, Brazil.

 Brazil’s Votorantim Cimentos files for $5.4 billion IPO

Votorantim Cimentos S.A., Brazil’s biggest cement producer, on Wednesday filed with regulators to raise up to $5.4 billion in an initial public offering of its units.

Brazil clears Pão de Açúcar’s appliance stores deal

BRASILIA/SAO PAULO – Grupo Pão de Açúcar SA , Brazil’s biggest retailer, won regulatory approval on Wednesday for its 2009 purchase of the Casas Bahia and Ponto Frio appliance chains in exchange for selling less than 8 percent of their store fronts.

Brazil Indian-farmer standoff intensifies, tribes storm Congress

BRASILIA – Brazilian Indians are trying to derail a congressional proposal to change the way indigenous lands are recognized, intensifying a standoff between the powerful farm sector and a carefully protected minority by literally storming the floor of Congress.

Special Report: Rough justice as Brazil tries to right past wrongs to Indians

MARAIWATSEDE, Brazil – Damião Paridzané was nine years old in 1966 when the Brazilian Air Force loaded him and hundreds of other Xavante Indians onto a cargo plane. | Video

UK-based TMO Renewables building cellulosic fuel plant in Brazil

SAO PAULO – UK-based TMO Renewables said on Friday it plans to build Brazil’s first commercially viable second-generation ethanol plant, betting on the South American country’s need for non-food-based biofuels.

Brazil’s Embraer looks to shock Lockheed with price of cargo jet

RIO DE JANEIRO – Brazilian planemaker Embraer SA is looking to shock rivals with the price of its KC-390 military transport plane when it starts booking firm orders within the next 12 months, according to a senior executive.

Higher volumes and more investment for Brazilian railfreight
INTERNATIONAL RAILWAY JOURNAL – Despite a slowdown in economic growth, Brazil’s freight railways invested nearly Reais 4.9bn ($US 2.4bn) in new infrastructure and equipment last year, a 6.6% increase over 2011,

LATIN AMERICA

British Firms Explore Trade Opportunities in Mexico and Colombia

A four-day trade mission to Mexico and Colombia by medium-sized British businesses took place in March, focusing on high value opportunities in key sectors.

Jamaica’s decades of debt are damaging its future

The latest IMF loan does not ‘rescue’ Jamaica, whose debt must be written off if its people are to take control of their economy

 The Logistics Hub Project and Jamaica’s Development
An ideal location midway between North and South America, in close proximity to the Panama Canal contributes to this advantage. The Panama Canal will be widened by 2015 to accommodate wider ships and Jamaica hopes to capitalise on this by expanding its port facility and affiliated infrastructure spread over four south coast parishes: namely Kingston, St Catherine, Clarendon and St Thomas. An IDB (2010) study on the productivity of the LAC region concluded that “ports and airports are grossly inefficient.

Latin America’s top port faces logistical woes
Santos’ cargo handling volumes made a strong start to 2013, with the port hitting a record high of 7.9 MM tons, up 27 percent year-on-year, according to Santos’ Port Authority CODESP. If the trend continues, the port is expected to close 2013 with total cargo traffic of 109 MM tons, up from 104 MM last year and 97 MM in 2011. But a record soybean harvest this year has clearly overwhelmed its storage and loading capacity. “It seems that our infrastructure can’t cope with the growth in grain production,” said Sergio Mendes, executive director of the Brazilian Cereal Exporters Association (ANEC). Last month, the logistical nightmare reached epic proportions, with a 64-kilometer traffic jam of trucks waiting to unload their soybean cargo outside Santos port. And the port congestion and resulting shipment delays led Sunrise Group, China’s largest soybean importer, to cancel an order to buy 2 MM metric tons of Brazilian soybean.

Latin America’s Largest PV Projects

As of April 1, 2013, 9.8 gigawatts of large-scale PV projects had been announced in Latin America and the Caribbean. Currently, the generating capacity of projects in operation is just 114 megawatts. Of the 9.8 gigawatts’ worth of announced projects, 731 megawatts have signed off-take agreements of some sort (power purchase agreements, feed-in tariff contracts, etc.) and a further 168 megawatts are under construction. These large numbers have generated a lot of hype for various Latin American markets, in particular, for Chile, Mexico, and Brazil.

Filed under: Banking, Brazil, Central America, Chile, Colombia, Energy & Environment, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, Risk Management, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

VAM: Vietnam Market Analysis – March 2013

The indices were mixed in the month of March. While the VN-Index gained 3% to close at 491, the HNX declined by the same quantum to 60.25. The VN30 edged up 0.62% to close the month at 552.3. After being net seller in February, foreigners have turned to net buyer with the value of USD55.6mn this month, suggesting that although difficulties still persist, sentiment was slightly improved.
 
Rate cuts to aid growth as inflation eased
A month after Tet, macro data indicated a significant weakness in total demand. Retail sales increased only 11.7% YoY in the first quarter, slowing from a 21.8% YoY pace in the same period last year. Besides, GDP expanded merely 4.89% YoY in 1Q2013, edging up from 4.75% YoY in the same period last year when growth was the slowest since 1999. A weak demand and noticeable deceleration in food and food stuff index caused CPI to decline 0.19% MoM in March, easing inflation to 6.64% YoY from 7.02% YoY in February. As inflation eased, the Central bank cut rates for the seventh time since the start of 2012 to spur growth. The cap on Dong deposit interest rates is reduced to 7.5% from 8% while other implemented rates such as refinancing and discount rates are lowered by 1% as well.
 
AMC plan not yet finalized; credit almost frozen
The establishment of a debt asset management company (AMC) was delayed until at least the end of April as government is skeptical about how much the company can help resolve bad debt between banks and businesses. On the other hand, the bank lending is still very weak as the credit growth only reached 0.1% YTD in the first quarter although the target for this year is 12%. While the economy is struggling with a slowdown of lending, the postponement of AMC might disappoint market further.
 
Dong still firm despite trade figures
According to GSO data, there was a trade deficit of USD300m in March, widening from a revised deficit of USD94mn in February. Nevertheless, the Dong remained stable as the year-to-date trade balance still remains at a surplus of USD481mn. After first three months of 2013, export increased 19.7% YoY while import improved 17% YoY as well. The unexpected improvement in import this month, in which imports of machinery and equipments was up 28.7% YoY should be viewed as the signal to preliminary recovery from manufacturing sector. Indeed, the HSBC PMI index posted in the positive territory at 50.8 in March, reaching the highest level since April 2011.
 
Challenging business environment
The Vietnamese Chamber of Commerce and Industry has announced the result of the Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) in 2012. The decline in median PCI score in 2012 reflected the slowdown in improvement of business environment across provinces. The most notable finding from the survey was that both foreign and domestic enterprises are more pessimistic about future prospect as optimism of enterprises, measure by the share of firms willing to expand in the next two years, has fallen to the historic low level of 33%. In addition, recent surprising petro price hike by 6.5% would make things more challenging as it would eat into businesses’ profit margin and hurt consumer spending.
 
Government’s effort to unfreeze the real estate market
Following the commitment to help the real estate sector, the SBV has revealed a draft of the social housing program. In which, 3% of the total loan book of 5 state owned banks will be dedicated to the social housing fund.  Buyers and developers of social houses will be provided loans with preferential interest rates in 10 and 5 years, respectively. For the first 3 years, starting from 15th April 2013, the lending rate will be 6%. The program is expected to bring some cheers to real estate developers and home buyers, however as most inventories are in mid and high end segments, the program may not be effective enough to rescue the whole troubled real estate market
 
Our ViewDespite some modest improvements, the first quarter of 2013 still ended with lackluster GDP and credit growth, coupled with a challenging business environment. Indeed, as domestic retail sales still remained weak, much of improvement was from external demand rather than from internal demand. All of these revealed that the economy is still struggling and may not have reached the bottom. Fortunately, recent effort of the government to spur growth has buoyed the stock market somewhat and hopefully it could buoy production and business activities as well.  After a sudden hike in petrol price that brings back the inflation risk, we think the scope for further rate cut is limited. Hence, in the long run, resolving the core problem (bad debt) still plays a critical role in regaining domestic confidence and recovering the stagnated economy.
We keep our cautious view on the economy and the stock market until clearer signs of recovery surface. In the mean time, as the AGM season has started, we will focus on screening for companies that still do well in the difficult time.

Filed under: News, Risk Management, Vietnam, , , , , ,

Latin America: Investor News Letter 18 January 2013

Mexico
Mexican Peso Slides on Carstens Hint at Interest-Rate ReductionMexico’s peso fell the most in four weeks after central bankers signaled that a further slowdown in inflation could prompt them to lower interest rates.
Nieto seeks to open Mexican energy sector
Los Tres Amigos: Positioning Your Portfolio In Mexican Peso Denominated Deb
Most U.S. funds missed Mexico gains, Brazil drop in 2012
Japanese investments in Mexico steady
Region completes work on international infrastructure project with Mexico

Brazil
Brazil’s Real Declines on Inflow Concern; Swap Rates Climb
Brazil: Daylight piracy
“SQUEEGEE merchants of the seas”: that is the nickname shipping companies have bestowed on the pilots who guide ships into Brazilian ports. Their legal monopoly and unregulated fees place them among the country’s highest earners: 150,000 reais ($73,500) a month, estimates the shipowners’ association. It costs twice the OECD average to import a container to Brazil, says the World Bank—and since that excludes bribes and fees for go-betweens, the true figure is surely greater.
Brazil Seeks Private Partners to Operate Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte Airports
Brazil announces regional airport infrastructure investment plans
Brazil aviation faces turbulence after rapid ascent
Brazil ports starved of investment, buried in red tape-group
Guyana, Brazil sign on to infrastructure plan
Brazilian municipality of São Bernardo do Campo to improve sustainable urban mobility with loan from IDB

Latin America
Argentina: Tax & Estate Planning
Argentina rapidly changing oil/gas industry levies to attract foreign investment
Bolivia takes over Spanish-owned Iberdrola energy suppliers
Colombia: ANI to launch four new public infrastructure concessions valued at US$1.95bn
Colombian Peso Advances on Foreign Investment Outlook
Chile: First Solar Stakes Claim in Latin America
Peru’s investment opportunities attracts Qatar’s firms Peru: Infrastructure gap put at $88bn
Peru-based AFPs invest over US$3.5bln in infrastructure
Cement Industry Figures In Peru: Btg Pactual Begins Coverage Of Cpac With A Buy Recommendation
Peru to invest over US$701mln in access infrastructure projects
Peru: Ezentis shifts focus to Latin America, helped by $64M Telefónica Peru contract
Peruvian entrepreneurs expect investment to continue growing in 2013
Venezuela: What Hugo Chavez’s Illness Means for Venezuelan Mining

Latin America and Caribbean PhotoVoltaic Demand Growing 45% Annually Out To 2017 
Latin American ports record strong performance in 2012
South America: A Powerhouse, Not a Circus
10 Latin American startups to look out for in 2013

Filed under: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Energy & Environment, Japan, Latin America, Mexico, News, Peru, Risk Management, Venezuela, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Latin America: Investor News Letter 17 November 2012

Mexico

Slim Acquires Controlling Stake in Real Oviedo, El Pais Reports

Billionaire Carlos Slim agreed to invest 2 million euros ($2.5 million) to acquire a controlling stake in Spain’s soccer team Real Oviedo, newspaper El Pais reported today.

Mexico lawmaker introduces bill to legalize marijuana
Sherwin-Williams to buy Mexico’s Comex for $2.34 billion
Mexico Third-Quarter GDP Rose at Slowest Pace in Over Year
Cemex Latam Falls in Bogota After $1.14 Billion Initial Sale
Mexican banks invest domestically
Mexico: Investors’ New China
TransCanada to build, operate Mexican natural gas pipeline; will invest US$1B

 

Brazil

Top names drop off list of Thyssen Americas bidders

FRANKFURT – Several top steelmakers are sitting out ThyssenKrupp’s auction of its U.S. and Brazilian mills and there appears little interest in the latter, suggesting the German firm may fall well short of its $9 billion asking price.

Eletrobras to take over bankrupt Brazil power utility
Cuba opens sugar sector to foreign management
Microsoft’s investment in Brazil to spur Rio research boom-execs
Telecom Italia looking at GVT, other opportunities
Wuhan Steel shelves plans to build Brazil mill
A new wave of Brazilian infrastructure investment
Brazil’s Itaqui port plans $3.2 billion upgrade
Rio Olympics, World Cup at risk with royalty bill, governor warns

 

Latin America

Paving the Way  High-­Tech Financial Infrastructure Hits LatAm

Foreign market leaders such as Fidessa, Direct Edge and Navatar are challenging local providers in the race to meet the booming region’s needs. The growth in size and sophistication of LatAm capital markets has both fueled and been fueled by the implementation of high-tech financial infrastructure in the region, as the hardware and software that have  been the foundation …

 Latin American yields fall further in a warning to bond investors
Impoverished Iberians, booming Latin America eye new relations
Africa and Latin America Still Fight Vulture Funds
More LatAm ETFs Your Broker Forgot to Mention
UN asks LatAm firms to grow with social responsibility
Private Equity Lures Pensioners as Bond Yields Sink
Argentina’s Debt Restructuring Argument Could Be Very Significant For The Global Economy
Argentina’s YPF 3rd-Quarter Profit Down 51% on Year at $159 Million
Bolivia Returns to the Global Bond Market
Chile pension fund-ordered estimate lowers Endesa Latam asset value
Chilean regulator to put new limits on pension fund investments
Germany’s Solarstrom enters Latin America with 2MW in Chile
Colombia opens criminal probe into Interbolsa collapse
Colombia’s Interbolsa brokerage to be liquidated
Public-Private Partnerships in Colombia: Scaling-up Results
Paraguay, Worst LatAm Economic Result of 2012
Peru May Invest About $5.2 Billion in Water, Wastewater Projects
Aeropuertos del Peru mulling over opportunities in Brazil and Chile
Overseeing Peru’s international appeal at ProInversión

Filed under: Argentina, Banking, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Energy & Environment, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, Risk Management, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

VAM: Vietnam Market Analysis – September 2012

Markets declined in September
September was characterized by sideways market movements for the VN-Index, with the largest gap between the month’s high and low being approximately only 15 points. Closing the month at 392.57, the index gave up 0.87% for the month. The Hanoi exchange moved quite differently – a near downward trajectory to close the month at 55.47, down 9.7%. The VN30’s performance more closely resembled the VN-Index, with only narrow swings during the month, to close at 456.48, down 1.89% from August.
 
Market reacted to ACB resignations as developments troubled investors
In an unexpected announcement, ACB accepted the resignation of its BOD Chairman and two Vice Chairmen, this month. The resignations were initially claimed to be for personal and health reasons, yet were later announced to be connected to the arrest of ACB’s founder and the former CEO for economic violations (one of which being permission granted for approximately USD 34million to be deposited into competing banks at rates above the stipulated cap). A former BOD member of ACB, now on the Board of Eximbank, also resigned and is also to be prosecuted together with all the resigned ACB executives. Upon the dissemination of this information, the markets dropped, however only temporarily, as the news was widely expected.
 
Credit mobilization vastly exceeds credit growth
Credit growth from January to September 20, of this year, reached only 2.53%, much below the 8-10% target for 2012. While some banks have posted relatively high growth figures, such as BIDV and Military Commercial Jt Stock Bank, whose growth reached 13.5% and 10% respectively in the first 8 months; most of their credit growth however was for commercial bond lending. Removing commercial bond lending, loans outstanding to institutions and individuals decreased. In another example, VCB grew their credit 7.2% in the first 8 months, however savings growth was 13%. In efforts to ensure liquidity and being bound by the 9% deposit rate cap, many banks have begun to offer 13% interest for 13-month deposit terms. With dong lending rates now ranging between 13-15%, profits will come under pressure.
 
Health care and Education lead September’s CPI increase
In August, YoY inflation continued to abate to 5.04%, this month however, inflation rose to 6.48% YoY. September’s CPI rose 2.2% MoM, the highest MoM increase since May 2011. The increase is largely due to Healthcare, pharmaceutical items (17.02% increase), Education items (10.54% increase), and Transport and Telecoms (3.83%) increases. While Education’s increase was mostly due to seasonal factors, a series of rising petroleum prices played a notable role in the increase of one-off items.
 
GDP in first 9 months grew 4.73% over same period 2011
2012’s GDP growth is now expected to be 5.2%, thus requiring Q4 growth rate of 6.6%  fairly optimistic as Q3 growth was 5.35% and Q4, 2011 growth reached only 5.98%. GDP has however, been steadily improving from Q1 and Q2. Low credit growth, declining exports and slow retail sales, combine to make up slow domestic growth. Export value declined an estimated 5.8% in September, according to GSO; however, import value also dropped 4.4%, bringing the Q3 trade balance to a USD 531 million surplus. Retail revenue growth in September increased 1.08% for the month, improved over the 0.7% growth recorded in August.  For the first 9 months of 2012, nominal retail sales growth was 17% however; it reached only 6.4% in real terms. The Index of Industrial production also showed some signs of improvement, increasing 4.5% on month with increases in the manufacturing index being the largest contributor to the improved index.
   
FDI disbursement level paces 2011’s levels
Vietnam attracted approximately 73% of 2011’s January – September FDI, for a total of USD 9.52 billion. While overall attraction had declined, FDI disbursed reached USD8.1 billion, totaling 98.8% of YoY’s disbursed FDI. The Foreign Investment Agency expects disbursed FDI to reach USD 10 billion by year-end. Strong FDI disbursements have bolstered the FX reserves nearly USD 23 billion and contributed to S&P’s upgraded economic outlook and Fitch Rating’s affirmed B+ status of the dong.
 
Moody’s adjust government bond rating on banking sector weakness
At nearly the month’s end, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Vietnam’s credit rating one notch to B2, with a stable outlook. At cause for the downgrade are the country’s banks and the risk that the government will need to partially recapitalize them given the lack of private sector solutions. The rating agency also downgraded all 8 of the Vietnamese banks it assesses due to deteriorating asset quality and profitability pressure.
 
Our ViewWith uncertainty regarding economic and banking reform still lingering around, we prefer to be conservative at this time, holding high cash and only retaining our core equity holdings; companies which we have high conviction in and believe will stand the test of change.
We take this opportunity to do our homework well, combing the market carefully for resilient companies with little or no debt, strong growth potential, good cash flow and earnest management. Although valuations of certain companies and sectors have become quite attractive, we are not rushing in just yet. Too much change is happening or expected to be happening. So we need a little more certainty before getting back into the market.

Source: VAM Vietnam Asset Management, 15.10.2012

Filed under: Asia, Banking, Exchanges, News, Risk Management, Vietnam, , , , , , , ,

Greater China Exchanges: Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges set up joint venture

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx), Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE) and Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) signed an agreement today (Thursday) to establish a joint venture (JV) in Hong Kong with an aim to develop financial products and related services.  The three exchanges hope this new venture will help promote the development of China’s capital markets, enhance the competitiveness of these markets and promote the internationalisation of the three bourses.

 The principal business of the JV will include, but not be limited to, the development and franchising of index-linked and other equity derivatives products; the compilation of cross-border indices based on products traded on the three markets; and the development of industry classification for listed companies, information standards and information products.  They will also include market promotion, customer services, technical services and infrastructure development.

Initially, the JV will develop a series of cross-border indices on which a family of index products will be introduced.  This series of indices will include a benchmark cross-border index comprising large Mainland enterprises listed on HKEx’s wholly-owned subsidiary.  The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, SHSE and SZSE, and two indices based on this cross-border index – an index comprising A-share constituents and an index comprising Hong Kong market constituents.  The index products will include equity index futures and options based on these indices and they will be traded on HKEx’s derivatives market.

The JV’s nine-member board will be comprised of three directors nominated by each of the exchanges.  SHZE and SZSE will each nominate a Joint Chairman from their representatives on the board.  HKEx will nominate the Chief Executive from its designated directors.

The JV will have an initial paid-up capital of $300 million, with HKEx, SHSE and SZSE each contributing $100 million.  The three exchanges will have equal shareholding interest in the JV.  The exchanges aim to establish the JV within three months from the execution of the agreement.

“Building on the many well-established ties among the three exchanges, the new venture will provide a new platform for our cooperation and we hope that it will contribute to the further development of Hong Kong and the Mainland’s capital markets,” said HKEx Chief Executive Charles Li.

“As China continues to open up and the RMB gradually internationalises, it is inevitable we will have to compete in the international capital market.  Our efforts to further cooperation with HKEx and develop products for the offshore market will bring about a win-win situation for both Hong Kong and the Mainland,” said SHSE President Zhang Yujun.

“The establishment of the JV will help increase foreign investors’ exposure to the Mainland market via Hong Kong.  In addition, the JV can help raise the Mainland capital market’s influence in offshore markets and provide opportunities to explore opening up measures,” said SZSE President and CEO Song Liping.

Source: Mondovisone, 28.06.2012

Filed under: Asia, China, Exchanges, Hong Kong, , , , , , , , , , ,

Latin America: Investors Newsletter 15 June 2012

Petrobras Is Worst Big Oil Investment on Deepwater Disappointments: Energy   Petroleo Brasileiro SA is the worst investment among the world’s biggest oil companies this year as Brazil’s state-controlled producer suffers delays and cost overruns developing the largest oil finds in more than a decade.

Iusacell, Telefonica to challenge Mexico’s Slim America Movil  – Iusacell and Spain’s Telefonica said on Wednesday they have reached a deal to share their infrastructure in Mexico as they seek to mount a

FX swings may stir debt investors in Mexico, Peru  Mexico, Peru debt mkts most vulnerable to outflows in Latam. * Peru acting to curb FX, Mexico avoiding intervention.

Mexico’s Slim family (Grupo Carso) takes stake in Argentina YPF nationalized enegy company Mexican tycoon Carlos Slim and his family have taken a stake in Argentina’s recently renationalized energy company YPF in lieu of a loan guarantee, ..

Filed under: Argentina, Brazil, Energy & Environment, Latin America, Mexico, News, Risk Management, Venezuela, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Latin America: Investors Newsletter 8 June 2012- Alternative Latin Investor

Get Out of the Shade -Gaining Exposure to LatAm Renewables
With LatAm’s regional renewables sector so nascent, there is a consensus among the industry and investment experts with whom ALI spoke that the best way to gain exposure to its growth is through sector- and region-focused funds and, in some cases, focused equity plays.

Global Forex Recap & LatAm speaking with City Credit Capital
Uncertainty in Europe, elections in the US, and the threat of escalating ‘currency wars’ are all key global issues likely to influence Latin American foreign exchange markets in the near future…

Filed under: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Latin America, Mexico, News, Peru, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

China QFII quota increase April 2012

International asset managers are preparing to apply for the expanded quotas for China’s qualified foreign institutional investor (QFII) scheme and its renminbi-denominated equivalent (RQFII), but the opening will benefit only some.

Last week the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said it would increase the total quota for the QFII scheme to $80 billion from $30 billion. At the same time, it released a second batch of RQFII quotas of Rmb50 billion ($7.92 billion), which will be used for A-share exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in Hong Kong.

“Even though the additional $50 billion QFII quota and Rmb50 billion under RQFII are not significant amounts for the A-share market, they still have a positive impact,” says Shenzhen-based Da Cheng Fund Management.

Unlike the first batch of RQFII quotas (Rmb20 billion released last December), which were shared by 21 Hong Kong subsidiaries of Chinese fund managers and securities firms, the second batch will only be granted to a few experienced managers.

“We have been preparing for this product for many months and we are confident we will be one of the managers to get the RQFII ETF quota,” says Michelle Chua, regional head of business development at Harvest Global Investors, the international arm of Beijing-based Harvest Fund Management.

The existing A-share ETFs offered in Hong Kong are mostly synthetic (swaps-based) products, but RQFII will broaden the range of physically backed products.

The new ETFs will directly invest in A-shares, explains Chua, so that “there will be no counterparty risk, no p-note [participation note] cost and no foreign exchange difference, as the ETF currency denomination [in renminbi] is the same as [that of] the underlying investments”.

Harvest FMC and Huatai Pinebridge were the two managers that jointly launched the CSI 300 ETF, the first cross-market ETF tracking stocks listed on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges.

The CSRC will take the RQFII pilot scheme to the next level by expanding its scale, allowing more types of financial institutions to participate and more flexibility in terms of asset allocation.

For the QFII scheme, the previous ceiling was lifted from $10 billion to $30 billion in 2007 after the China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue took place. The increase of $50 billion this time is hailed by local media as “unprecedented”.

Since the QFII scheme commenced in 2003, the CSRC has granted licences to 158 foreign financial institutions from 23 countries and regions. They include 82 asset managers, 11 insurance firms, 23 commercial banks, 13 securities companies and 29 other institutions, such as sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and endowment funds.

The CSRC says 129 out of the 158 qualifiers have obtained a total of $24.5 billion in QFII quotas. As of March 23, 74.5% of the assets in the QFII accounts were invested in the domestic stock market, 13.7% in bonds and 9.6 % in bank deposits. The total holding of QFIIs counts for 1.09% of the market capitalisation of domestic A-shares.

Z-Ben Advisors views the latest changes as “unambiguous signals of China’s intent to attract more offshore investors and a sign that market investments will play a key role in the government’s plan to internationalise the Rmb”.

The Shanghai-based consultancy suggests that, in the short term, asset managers in the QFII application queue should expect accelerated approvals.

Regulators have already upped the pace of approvals since the end of last year. In March, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange granted a record $2.11 billion of quotas to 15 companies, compared with a total quota of $1.87 billion handed out during 2011.

“The QFII programme enhances our experience of monitoring cross-border securities investment and capital flows,” the CSRC says. “The QFIIs, mainly overseas long-term value investors, have diversified the domestic investor structure, upgraded the quality of listed companies and promoted the international recognition of domestic capital markets.”

Source: Asian Investor, 10.04.2012

Filed under: China, News, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Brazils BM&FBOVESPA to aid Chiles Santiago SE (BCS) with Derivatives Knowledge Transfer exchange

BM&FBOVESPA and the Santiago Stock Exchange (BCS) signed an agreement today (April 12, 2012) that sets out the implementation of the Chilean derivatives market at the Santiago Stock Exchange. The agreement provides for the transfer of derivatives market knowledge from BM&FBOVESPA to the Chilean Exchange, encompassing products such as equity, interest rate and FX options and futures.

The alliance between the two exchanges began in December 2010 and other strategic projects are in the pipeline, such as connectivity and order routing and market data distribution in particular.

Source:MondoVisione, 12.04.2012

Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, Chile, Exchanges, Latin America, , , , , , , , , , ,

Brazil: BM&FBOVESPA Financial Report: IT Business-CoLo-HFT-ETF’s and Sharebuyback

BM&FBOVESPA S.A. (BVMF3) today reported fourthquarter  earnings  ending  December  30,  2011.  New  strategic  areas  such  as  Securities Lending, Tesouro Direto, ETFs and High Frequency Trading (HFT) performed well in the quarter. Successful implementation of the derivatives and spot FX modules of the PUMA Trading System and forward momentum on the multi-asset integrated clearing system further boosted the Company’s technological edge.

BM&FBOVESPA announced an adjusted expense1 budget range of R$580 million to R$590 million and a capital expenditure budget range of R$230 million to R$260 million for 2012. The adjusted Opex range equals the range for 2011 as a result of the Company’s cost- cutting improvements.

“We remain focused on capturing the growth opportunities offered by the Brazilian market,” said BM&FBOVESPA Chief Executive Officer Edemir Pinto. “The execution of our investment   program   to   strengthen   our   IT   infrastructure   and   the   launching   and development of products and markets, such as ETFs, HFTs and options on single stocks, are aligned with this goal. We are also taking actions to strengthen market supervision, which will help make the Brazilian market more attractive to investors. Mr. Pinto added,“We highly welcome the government’s decision to remove an IOF tax on equity investments by non-residents.”

During 4Q11, net revenues were almost flat year-over-year. This reflected a decline in trading volumes which was offset by a 39.5% increase in other revenues. Expenses were higher as a result of a one-time extraordinary transfer of restricted funds to strengthen the BM&FBOVESPA Market Supervision (BSM) while adjusted expenses were well in line with the Company’s announced budget range. Adjusted EBITDA2margin was relatively stable at65.2% compared to 66.5% in 4Q10. Adjusted net income3 per share declined by 1.0% year-over-year.

 

Source: MondoVisione, 15.02.2012

Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, Exchanges, Latin America, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Hong Kong and Singapore as Asia´s Financial Gateways

Celent predicts a paradigm shift around access to Asia. There is likely to be two gateways, providing access to different Asian regions, with Singapore emerging as the preferred gateway to Southeast Asia and Hong Kong becoming the gateway to Mainland China.

In a new report, the third of a series looking at the financial markets in Hong Kong and Singapore, Celent aims to provide a comparative analysis of Asia’s two main financial gateways, focusing particularly on derivatives. Asia’s Tale of Two Cities: Hong Kong and Singapore as Financial Gateways begins by noting that Western governments have emerged from the financial crisis in a weakened state, with economic prosperity blunted by high unemployment and an emerging debt crisis. The question is no longer when or if we need to enter the Asian markets, but how to best think about the issues of accessibility, entering the market, developing products, and forming strategic partnerships. The fundamental question that needs to be asked now is: “Where do we go from here, Hong Kong or Singapore?”

Although the HKEx and SGX may not be the biggest derivatives players in Asia-Pacific, they tend to be the most accessible for segments located outside the region. Taking advantage of their geographic location, political climate, and internal strengths, these city-states are poised to become hubs for trading of Asia’s regional products while also being easily accessed by US traders via retail trading accounts.

There are several factors that are likely to continue to drive growth in the derivatives market. These include:

• A relatively muted response to regulating over-the-counter markets as compared with the US and Europe. The type of products that led to the financial crisis in the West are not widely established throughout Asia, and as a result, the regulatory structure governing OTC markets are unlikely to change significantly.

• Continued desire to manage foreign exchange risk.

• Continued enhancement of processes of structuring derivatives risk management policies.

“We are seeing changes in relation to access to Asia. Hong Kong is no longer destined to become the sole hub to Southeast Asia,” says Alexander Camargo, Analyst and coauthor of the report. “Inherent strengths in Singapore are making it an extremely attractive financial gateway. Both English and Chinese are frequently spoken in Singapore, making it an ideal cross-roads for East and West. Furthermore, Singapore is viewed by most Asian countries as a neutral party and less politically tied to China than Hong Kong. This is likely to entice Indian investors and even Japanese and Korean investors to Singapore’s shores.”

However, this does not mean that Hong Kong will recede as a major financial center in Asia. Hong Kong residents are often fluent in both English and Chinese; contract laws are strong; and there remain strong historical ties to the West. As a Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong has stronger political ties to China. Hong Kong has also been busy integrating its financial markets with mainland China. These factors make it likely that Hong Kong will become a key gateway to mainland China.

This report begins with an overview of each country’s financial infrastructure and regulations, providing an introduction to the countries’ various demand market segments, followed by a look at the main exchanges, HKEx and SGX. A summary of HKEx and SGX focuses on derivatives trading, providing a brief description of products offered, market access, alliances, and clearing on the exchanges. The report then looks at each country’s fixed income markets, OTC derivatives, and FX markets. It concludes with a discussion of market supremacy and also the countries’ ongoing efforts to improve market structure and access.

Source: Bobsguide, 10.02.2012

Filed under: Asia, China, Exchanges, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, News, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 83 other followers