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September 1, 2010 • 11:35 pm 0

Brazil: US economy still in the spotlight – September 2010- IXE BANIF – Monthly Analysis

Little hope for a short-term change in the economy

For September, we foresee that attention will continue focused on the US economy, which has been showing signs of weakness since the beginning of 2H10. This expectation is the same we had for August, which proved to be correct. The main event we highlight for September is the FOMC meeting on the 21st, which might raise market expectations of new measures to improve economic growth. The latest statement on the economy from the President of the Central Bank mentioned that the Bank is ready, if necessary, to intervene to adjust the economic trend. However, its portfolio of potential measures is, in our view, limited due to the current low level of interest rates. Meanwhile, data released on housing, payroll and investment are likely to drive the market in the ST.

Concerning the rest of the world, we believe that Europe will continue out of the spotlight, with Germany leading the local economy well. We believe that the only negative in the month could come from China, which has been releasing some mixed and inconclusive data lately.

In September, with little change in the scenario and no major event in sight, we expect the market to move sideways and with less volatility. Therefore, we decided to maintain our defensive view and keep the core of our previous portfolio. We have added Tietê, MRV and EZ Tec, increased the weight of Petrobras (from 15 to 20%) and reduced the weight of Eletropaulo (from 10 to 5%). We have withdrawn B2W (weak 2Q results without good ST expectations), CSN (due to its deteriorated ST outlook) and Tegma (stellar performance in the month).

Petrobras is the month’s highlight

Last month, we predicted that the start of the political TV campaign in August, at presidential level, would be exciting and move the markets. The reality proved to be very dull, with the Labor Party’s candidate having the unquestionable advantage and no response at all from any of the main financial markets: equity, interest rate and FX. In September, we believe that Petrobras’ capital increase operation will be the highlight. The weak performance of the company’s shares in the past 1.5 years contributed to holding down the Ibovespa. We believe that, after the capital increase, they can have the opposite effect.

When it comes to economic data, we believe the two most important events of the month will take place in the first week. These are the Copom meeting on the 1st and the 2Q GDP report on the 3rd. We expect an unchanged Selic rate of 10.75% for the former and a 1% change for the later (QoQ seasonally adjusted, or around 8% YoY).

Read full analysis Brazil – Monthly Allocation – September 2010

Source: IXE-BANIF, 01.09.2010

Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, Latin America, News , , , , , , , , , , ,

August 27, 2010 • 11:30 pm 0

Mexico: safer than Canada ? safer than Brazil!

K, so the headline is a bit of a fib. But a report on Mexico’s security situation has painted a more detailed picture than the one we hear about in the news most of the time. When I told friends I was moving to Mexico City, some asked if I would be provided with a bodyguard (no). Business travellers are thinking twice about coming, according to chambers of commerce here. But a detailed breakdown of violence released this week shows that, if you pick your state, you’re as safe—or safer—than in any other North American country.

Mexico’s overall homicide rate is 14 per 100,000 inhabitants: fearsomely high (and possibly an underestimate, given the drugs cartels’ habit of hiding bodies in old mines), but quite a lot lower than its great Latin rival Brazil, whose rate is more like 25. As the chart below shows, Mexico’s death rate is bumped up by extraordinarily high levels of violence in four states: Chihuahua (home of Ciudad Juárez, widely labelled the world’s most murderous city), Durango, Sinaloa and Guerrero (see p.29 of this document). Of the rest, some are blissfully serene: Yucatán, where tourists flock to swim with whale sharks and clamber over Chichen Itzá, has a murder rate of 1.7—slightly lower than Canada’s average of 2.1.

Read full article in the Economist

Before I am buried an avalanche of polite Canadian emails, I should acknowledge that comparing an entire country with one quiet state is hardly fair: there are no doubt parts of Canada where no-one has been so much as kicked in the shin for decades. But Mexico’s predicament is worth highlighting, because the extreme violence around its border with the United States colours people’s view of the rest of the country, though much of it is pretty quiet. A third of Mexico’s states hover around 5 murders per 100,000, about the same rate as the United States. Another third are around 8 per 100,000, similar to Thailand, for instance. A handful of states have rates in the teens—like Russia, say—and a couple are in the low twenties, a little lower than Brazil’s average. Then you have the chaos of the four very violent states, which sends the average soaring.

The carnage in Mexico’s badlands is not to be underestimated, and nor does it seem to be getting any better. Business travellers should certainly watch out in places such as Juárez and, these days, even in cities such as Monterrey. But people doing business south of the Rio Grande should remember that, even on average, Mexico is a less murderous country than places such as Brazil, and that once you avoid the hotspots, it’s downright safe.

Source: The Economist, 27.08.2010

Filed under: Brazil, Latin America, Mexico, News, Thailand , , , , , , , , ,

August 22, 2010 • 12:31 am 0

Brazil Macro August 2010

According to the IPCA-15 index, inflation was -0.05%. The inflation deceleration process, which was initially characterized by a positive shock of food prices and the seasonal favorable behavior of clothing prices, has gradually become broader and longer than originally thought. The inflation outlook points to IPCA reacceleration down the road, but low current inflation is postponing this scenario. In all, the Selic rate is likely to be maintained stable in the next COPOM meeting.

According to the IPCA-15 index, inflation was -0.05% in the 30 days ended in August,13th. Since the end of June, retail inflation, measured by the IPCA and the IPCA-15 indexes, has remained at a very low level, close to zero, and chances are that this will not change in the short term.

The diffusion index rose slightly to 52.9, from  48.7 in the end of July, showing that a larger percentage of items from the inflation basket has faced price increase. However, diffusion´s moving average is declining (see chart on the right), suggesting that inflation is likely to keep decelerating. Also, there is indeed a growing number of groups of goods or services posting deflation or declining inflation. For instance, according to August´s IPCA-15, food at home, furniture, home appliance, electronics, clothing, footwear, textiles, pharmaceuticals and communications posted deflation. Eating out of home, fuel and energy for housing, health services, personal care and recreation are posting significant lowering inflation.

In sum, the inflation deceleration process, which was initially characterized by a positive shock of food prices and the seasonal favorable behavior of clothing prices, has gradually become broader and longer than originally thought. As a result, 12-month core IPCA and services inflation have begun to drop, which is surprising because the level of capacity utilization is close to a record high, unemployment is at a record low, the aggregate wage bill is rising and there are signs of supply shortage in some sectors.

The inflation outlook points to IPCA reacceleration down the road, because of the underlying economic conditions, the fact that wholesale prices have increased, and the high probability that wage negotiations, scheduled for the following months, will lead to real wage increases above productivity gains. Nevertheless, low current inflation is postponing the IPCA reacceleration scenario and, to be fair, weakening it too, as it helps align inflation expectations with the inflation target. In all, August´s IPCA is likely to be around 0.1% and the monetary policy committee – Copom – seems poised to maintain the Selic rate stable in the next meeting, scheduled for September,1st.

Source: Banif – IXE, 20.08.2010 Mauro Schneider  – mschneider@banifib.com.br

Filed under: Brazil, Latin America, News , , , , , , , , , ,

August 21, 2010 • 11:56 pm 0

Brazil: BM&FBOVESPA Monthly News August 2010

BVMF NEWS – August 2010 Complete and Detailed Version

  • CVM authorizes BM&FBOVESPA to implement new DMA modalities in the Bovespa segment
  • New Fee Policy for High-Frequency Traders (HFT)
  • BM&FBOVESPA presents new financial education campaign
  • Itaú Unibanco S.A. is selected to manage the Financial ETF
  • Reduction in the round lot for ETFs to facilitate the access of individual investors
  • Deadline extended for approval of amendments to the listing rules for the special listing segments
  • On August 13th BM&FBOVESPA announced its 2010 second quarter earnings
  • MARKET RESULTS – BM&F Segment July 2010
  • MARKET RESULTS – BOVESPA Segment July 2010

Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, Exchanges, Latin America , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

August 20, 2010 • 7:41 am 0

Latin America Commercial Real Estate and Lending – Webinar – August 26th

Taking into consideration the trials and tribulations regarding real estate over the past two years, Alternative Latin Investor thought it prudent to hold a round-table discussion of Latin America’s fairly insulated Commercial Real Estate market along with the complementary lending market.

In order to best explore these topics we have invited some of the top experts in the field: For full details regarding topics and speakers, please see: http://www.alternativelatininvestor.com/Webinar/CommercialRealEstate.pdf

Brazil  

Maximo Pinheiro Lima Netto – Managing Director at Prosperitas – the market leader in managing real estate private equity and debt funds. Prosperitas is currently responsible for 4 domestic real estate opportunity funds, with a current real estate operation of about 1.14 billion USD of assets under management.

Flavio Mantesso – Portfolio Management Director at Eccelera – an investment fund manager focused in the office real estate sector in Brazil and partner of one of Europe’s major investment houses. Flavio has also created a proprietary forecast model, which utilizes statistical regressions, monte-carlo simulations and other tools to better predict real estate market movements and investment returns.

Mexico

Michael K. Krause – Investment Director at Hines – a privately owned, international real estate firm with offices in over 17 countries and controls assets valued at approximately $22.9 billion.

Lawrence McDaniel – Chief Investment Officer at Axia Capital – a boutique investment and advisory firm headquartered in Mexico City specializing in Mexican affordable housing, leasing, and alternative consumer credit. Axia Capital is a principal investor in the Mexican private debt market, with emphasis on mortgages, leases and alternative consumer credit.

Peru

 Eric Rey De Castro -Managing Director at Colliers – a leading global real estate services organization with more than 480 offices worldwide.

Date: Thursday, August 26th, 1pm EST
Duration: 90min
Price: 89.00USD
Register at http://www.regonline.com/register/checkin.aspx?EventId=887913
Contact: Nate Suppaiah at nate@caprg.com or 202-905-0378

Filed under: Brazil, Events, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, Services, Wealth Management , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

August 10, 2010 • 1:03 am 0

BlackRock Bob Dolls: 10 prediction for the next 10 years

“10 Predictions for the Next 10 Years” by BlackRock’s Bob Doll and what it means to investors:

  1. U.S. equities experience high single-digit percentage total returns after the worst decade since the 1930s.
  2. Recessions occur more frequently during this decade than only once a decade as occurred in the last 20 years.
  3. Healthcare, information technology and energy alternatives are leading growth areas for the U.S.
  4. The U.S. dollar continues to be less dominant as the decade progresses.
  5. Interest rates move irregularly higher in the developing world.
  6. Country self-interest leads to more trade and political conflicts.
  7. An aging and declining population gives Europe some of Japan’s problems.
  8. World growth is led by emerging market consumers.
  9. Emerging markets weighting in global indices rises significantly.
  10. China’s economic and political ascent continues.

Read Bob Doll’s full report  10 Predictions for the next Decade

Source:BlackRock / Carral Sierra, 02.08.2010

Filed under: Banking, Brazil, China, Energy & Environment, Japan, Korea, Mexico, News, Risk Management, Wealth Management , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

August 6, 2010 • 11:04 pm 0

Kroll LATAM Risk Report August 2010: Money Laundring, Mobile Banking, Mexican Security, Brazilian Litigations

MONEY LAUNDERING  Banks on High Alert

Throughout much of Latin America and the Caribbean, banks and other financial institutions are getting tougher on money laundering. For the bad guys, the game of cat-and-mouse continues, as they jump from one country to another, looking for the weakest link in the chain. GO TO FULL STORY

BANKING & TELECOM  Mexico The Regulator as Hero

Mexico’s unheralded decision to design rules for mobile banking is a major milestone on the road to including millions of unbanked and underserved Latin Americans in the financial system and the formal economy. GO TO FULL STORY

Mexico Corporate Security

An annual survey conducted by Kroll and the American Chamber reveals a higher sense of insecurity among business executives at multinational and Mexican corporations. The safety of employees and executives remains the top concern for corporate heads of security. GO TO FULL STORY

CORPORATE LAW Challenging Sham Litigation  in Brazil

A Brazilian regulatory agency takes on Germany’s Siemens for alleged anti-competitive practices in a case that is likely to set an important precedent for regulators and the courts in protecting free market competition.  GO TO FULL STORY

Source: KROLL, 06.08.2010

Filed under: Brazil, Central America, Chile, Colombia, Latin America, Mexico, News, Peru, Risk Management, Venezuela , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

August 3, 2010 • 6:52 am 0

Brazil: Market now with eyes on US growth – August 2010- IXE BANIF – Monthly Analysis

Spotlight moves from the euro zone to the USA

In August, we foresee the financial markets moving their attention from the euro zone to the USA. We also expect China not to have much influence on market performance this month. The results of the bank stress test released in July seem to have calmed the market and caused fears of bankruptcy to fade. The data did not indicate that problems are over, but left the feeling that they are under control with the adjustments made so far. On the other hand, the hopes that the US economy would gain momentum have diminished after the FED’s Presidential speech at the end of July. Given this, we believe that published economic data are likely to drive the market, as they will give a better idea of trends. However, as we do not foresee any data released this month as important enough to change expectations, we believe the market is likely to move sideways.

Brazil – Monthly Allocation – August 2010

Last month, we foresaw a volatile market with no trend for July and based on this belief, compiled our portfolio with a defensive view. Despite this estimate, the market did rally and our portfolio followed the trend, demonstrating that it was able to perform well in upward as well as volatile movements. For this reason, we decided that, as we do not identify any definite catalyst driving the market in August, we would change our portfolio very little and continue our defensive view. We have reduced the weights on Bradesco and Hering (from 10% to 5% each) due to their recent stellar performance. We have also substituted Tietê for Eletropaulo, with the same weight, and added Telesp.

Focus on slowdown of US economy

The latest indications of a slowdown in the US economy point to a 2.5% GDP growth for 2010, from a previous 2.7%. This reduction, although immaterial, cooled down previous expectations of upward revisions in estimates and turned attention to stimulating growth. On August 10, attention should focus on the FOMC meeting to see if a change in the monetary policy is possible. However, with interest rates already close to zero, there is probably little to be done on this front. Monitoring the labor market (unemployment and payroll) is perhaps the best hope for investors to find economic improvement.

The real start of the Brazilian Presidential race

On August 17, presidential candidates will start their TV campaigns. Although candidates have been campaigning on the road for a while, many people see TV campaigns as the most important and decisive part of the presidential race, so voting polls that start after this are closely followed and should affect the market. Another potential source for market stress is the end of the low inflation period (last two months, caused by food prices) that we foresee for August. Although we expect inflation to remain at around 0.4% per month until December, people may view any rebound negatively.

Source: BANIF – IXE, 02.08.2010

Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, Exchanges, Latin America, News, Wealth Management , , , , , , , , , , , ,

July 21, 2010 • 2:17 am 0

Brazil: BM&FBOVESPA Monthly News July 2010

Proposed amendments to the listing rules for BM&FBOVESPA special listing segments
These proposals are subject to review by the listed issuers, who have until August 6 to comment. The revised listing rules are expected to take effect in November, after the closed hearing and final approval.
Offerings raise BRL 22.5 billion on BM&FBOVESPA in first seven months of 2010
This was double the proceeds raised in the corresponding period of 2009.
Brazilian presidential candidate Marina Silva meets with representatives of the international financial community in New York
The objective of this meeting is to discuss the guidelines for Brazil’s 2011 development plan. This event will be held at 10:30 a.m. on July 22, 2010 in New York City.
Volumes and Trades by Direct Market Access (DMA)
In June, the BM&F segment posted a trading volume of BRL 117,086,953,000 from 12,189,291 trades, in comparison with a volume of BRL153,982,431,000 and 14,667,970 trades in May.
BM&FBOVESPA, IDB and World Bank discuss challenges related to carbon financial instruments
The meeting allowed financial institutions to exchange experiences on the carbon markets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC).
Citigroup selected to manage process for Unsponsored Level I Brazilian Depositary Receipts
After the official opening of bid proposals, Citigroup Brazil is authorized to request the registration of 10 (ten) Brazilian Depositary Receipts.
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) attract even more individual investors
The participation of individual investors in ETFs rose from 15.5% in May to 23% in June. Volume totaled BRL515.30 million from 12,083 trades in June
Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE) completes five years with enhancements to portfolio
The companies listed on ISE are recognized for their high level of commitment to sustainability and social responsibility.
BM&FBOVESPA receives Investment Grade Rating From Moody’s
The upgrade reflects the company’s low level of financial leverage, key credit strength and good financial flexibility, which can be preserved even with long-term debt in its capital structure
MARKET RESULTS – BM&F Segment June 2010
The derivatives market segment totaled 43,313,807 contracts and BRL2.87 trillion in volume. Average daily trading volume in the derivatives markets was 2,062,562.
MARKET RESULTS – BOVESPA Segment June 2010
The equities market segment traded BRL122.6 billion in 8,371,028 trades, with daily averages of BRL5.84 billion and 398,620 trades.Complete Report BVMF NEWS July 2010

Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, Exchanges, Latin America, News , , , , , , , , , , ,

July 16, 2010 • 9:12 pm 0

Brazil Investment Summit, Hong Kong Nov 30/Dec 1, 2010

FinanceAsia and AsianInvestor are pleased to announce that the inaugural Brazil Investment Summit will be the second event in our Spotlight on Emerging Markets series. The previous event, the Russia- Capital Raising and Investment Summit, was held in Hong Kong in April and attracted more than 300 delegates.

Throughout the economic crisis, Brazil was a case study for success; its economy remained stable while other nations foundered. As it leads Latin America out of recession, where should Asian investors look in Brazil for value?

This inaugural summit will gather Asian financial market participants exploring investment possibilities in Brazil, attendees include:

  • Asian Institutional investors looking to put money to work in Brazil
  • Deal facilitators, including investment bankers and business brokers
  • Asian/Chinese corporates looking at M&A opportunities
  • Alternative investment funds, including private equity and hedge funds
  • Brazilian corporations looking to raise capital in Asia
  • Commercial banks
  • Sovereign wealth funds
  • Insurance companies
  • Central banks
  • Investors in commodities and natural resources
  • Service providers, including consultants, law firms, and accounting firms
    		•
    For more information about the Brazil Investment Summit, please contact:
    Speaker/Delegate queries:
    Laura Brody, Conference Producer
    (+852) 3175 1917
    laura.brody@financeasia.com    		 Sponsorship queries:
    Kar Wee Ang, Conference Sponsorship Manager
    (+852) 2122 5233
    karwee.ang@financeasia.com
    www.financeasia.com/brazil

    Filed under: Asia, Banking, Brazil, Events, FiNETIK Events, Hong Kong, Latin America, News, Services, Wealth Management , , , , , , , , ,

    July 4, 2010 • 11:42 pm 0

    Brazil: Scenario Unchanged – July 2010- IXE BANIF – Monthly Analysis

    Focus still on the euro zone

    For July, we believe the focus will continue to remain mainly on Europe. Banks in the region, particularly in most of the more fragile PIIGS group (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain), apart from Italy, have recently had limited access to financial markets and remain dependant on local Central Banks to access cash. This situation on its own is uncomfortable, remaining as a source of tension to a market that remains volatile. We expect volatility to continue in July and still do not see any indication of a trend. This is exactly the same view we had for June and, consequently, our suggested portfolio has changed little. We have withdrawn Drogasil, one of the largest winners; reduced the weight of CSN (from 10 to 5%); increased the weight on Hering (from 5 to 10%) and included B2W. With these alterations, we continue using the Ibovespa weights for the oil, mining, banking and transportation industries, remaining overweight for the retail and utility sectors. Brazil – Monthly Allocation – July 2010

    Outlook for the euro zone: uncertain and unequal

    The G-20 meetings resulted in the decision to halve deficits by 2013 and start decreasing debts from 2016. However, each country is free to decide on the balance between cuts and economic incentives. In Europe, we are facing a catch 22 situation: everyone agrees on the need for cuts, but most people do not want to implement them for fear of an economic slowdown, as perceptions are that growth is more essential. We believe that if only the feared slowdown occurs in Europe it would have little impact on local economic growth, as exports rather than local demand drive economic growth.

    Silver linings to the dark clouds

    For the rest of the world, we highlight the USA, China and Brazil. Although recently released economic data in the US came slightly below expectations, it is not indicative of a reversal of the trend towards a slow recovery. A conclusion of the details for the reform in the financial system may take place in July, leaving room for welcomed practical measures. In China, we expect growth to continue unchanged, balancing the still difficult situation of the developed world. In Brazil, we expect inflation data for June to be as low as that of May. We also see a transition time for GDP estimates, with a continued gathering of data to support either a revision or confirmation of the current 2H10 and 2011 expectations, which are currently good.

    Source: IXE BANIF, 02.07.2010

    Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, Exchanges, Latin America, Risk Management , , , , , , , , , , ,

    June 29, 2010 • 11:49 pm 0

    BM&F BOVESPA News June 2010

    “Brazil Easy Investing” will allow foreign investors to order routing in their local currencies
    BM&FBOVESPA and Chi-X Global are jointly developing an order routing software designed for the trading of Brazilian equities in foreign currencies.
    Launch of five new Currency Futures Contracts in the BM&F segment for trading
    Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Japanese Yen (JPY), Pound Sterling (GBP) and Mexican Peso (MXN) contacts are authorized for trading.
    DMA trading reaches historic levels in the BM&F segment
    Derivatives trading via Direct Market Access (DMA) set a new record in May, with 20,949,961 contracts traded in 3,040,357 trades. Other records were set during the same period.
    Bidding Process for the selection of a manager for the new financial ETF
    Interested financial entities must submit their proposals by no later than July 19th. The winning bidder will be the entity that provides the highest value commitment.
    Important agreement to stimulate the relationship between entrepreneurs and investors
    The partnership of BM&FBOVESPA and São José dos Campos Technology Park hopes to establish a culture of entrepreneurship and innovation, through professional training.
    Brazil elected as the most trustworthy country among the developing nations for doing business
    A survey of investors from all over the world showed that they considered Brazil to be the developing country with the best corporative governance.
    WFE Working Committee Meeting will be hosted by BM&FBOVESPA
    BM&FBOVESPA will host the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) Working Committee on July, 1st and 2nd, in São Paulo. Main topic to be discussed will be “Sustainable Investment”
    Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE) completes five years with enhancements to the next portfolio
    The companies listed on ISE are recognized for their high level of commitment to sustainability and social responsibility.
    MARKET RESULTS – BM&F Segment May 2010
    The derivatives market segment totaled 52,063,826 contracts and BRL3.57 trillion in volume. The average daily trading volume in the derivatives markets was 2,479,230.
    MARKET RESULTS – BOVESPA Segment May 2010
    The equities market segment reached a total volume of BRL152.93 billion, in 10.261.145 trades, setting a new record, with daily averages of BRL7.28 billion and 488,626 trades.

    Source: BM&FBOVESPA, 30.06.2010

    Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, Exchanges, Latin America, News , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    June 10, 2010 • 11:00 pm 3

    Alternative Assets in Latin America: Expert Panel Discusses June 15, 2010

    Please join Alternative Latin Investor and Focus Point Press June 15th for a round table webinar of industry experts discussing alternative assets in Latin America.  http://www.alternativelatininvestor.com/Webinar/AlternativesAssetsInLatAm.pdf
    Our Panel:

    Brigitte Posch
    PIMCO Executive Vice President and Portfolio Manager in its emerging markets group. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2008, she was a managing director and head of Latin American securitization and trading at Deutsche Bank.

    Will Landers
    CFA, Managing Director, Senior Portfolio Manager, is the portfolio manager for the BlackRock Latin America Fund, the BGF Latin America Fund, the BSF Latin American Opportunities Fund and the BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust PLC.

    Andrew Cummings
    Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Explorador Capital Management, LLC.

    Eric Saucedo
    Partner at Tricap Partners & Co., an investment banking firm focused on early-stage and middle market growth companies.

    Topics:

    -How alternative investment vehicles are faring in this recovery phase of the crisis
    -What strategies performed the better than others
    -What regions, sectors and vehicles are looking good for the coming year
    -New players to the region who we should keep an eye on
    -Growth of regulation in the alternative space
    -Where new capital to Latin America is coming from
    -Participation of both, foreign and domestic institutional investors
    -How LatAm stacks up against other emerging markets
    -The effect of Chavez on investor confidence in LatAm investments
    -How sustainable is Brazil
    -Countries to watch

    Date: Tuesday, June 15
    Time: 1pm EST
    Price: 89.00USD
    Register at http://www.regonline.com/Checkin.asp?EventId=866305

    For more information please see,
    http://www.alternativelatininvestor.com/Webinar/AlternativesAssetsInLatAm.pdf

    Filed under: Argentina, Banking, Brazil, Central America, Chile, Colombia, FiNETIK Events, Latin America, Mexico, News, Peru, Services, Venezuela, Wealth Management , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    June 2, 2010 • 3:10 am 0

    Brazil: Volatile Market with no Trend – June 2010- IXE BANIF – Monthly Analysis

    Focus spread over euro zone
    Last month, we correctly anticipated that the Greek problem would negatively dominate the markets. However, we did not anticipate that fears would spread severely over to other countries, especially the other PIIGS members (Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain). After the sharp negative effect on all markets worldwide, we believe that investors continue to be sensitive, with wounds still open and, in the absence of any concrete positive news in June, markets are likely to remain tense, volatile and with no definite short-term trend. This expectation only differs from our view for the previous month in the lack of trend. We chose our suggested portfolio last month to remain defensive, and believe this is also the best choice for June, which is why we have made hardly any modifications. We have only withdrawn Tim, which was the month’s largest winner, and transferred its weight to CSN to keep the weight of the steel industry close to its weight in the Ibovespa. With this move, our portfolio has weights similar of those at the Ibovespa for the oil, mining, banks, steel, transportation and telecom industries, while we keep retail and utilities overweight.

    Euro zone pros and cons
    For the Euro zone, we highlight some important points. Positives: a) Economic activity in the main countries is not weak; b) Announcement of important measures directed toward stability in Portugal, Spain and Italy. Negatives: a) growth is likely to remain low for at least the next few years; b) risk rating downgrades might occur, particularly for banks, if tension continues at its current level or worsens and c) country debts are likely to stabilize at high levels. From 2008 to 2013, gross debt to GDP ratio will increase in most countries. Based on the assumptions of the European Commission, this ratio for Portugal should go from 66% to 90%, for Spain from 40% to 75%, Ireland from 44% to 93%, Italy from 106% to 118% and Greece from 99% to 135%.

    Signs from other regions remain positive
    In other regions, the economic trend continues to improve. In the US, the Fed revised its GDP growth estimate upwards to 3.5% for 2010 and we believe recovery is likely to continue slowly but surely. In China, the economy continues strong and on the verge of overheating, although inflation has not surpassed the official 3% limit and we see no reason for any change in course. Finally, in Brazil we also see strong signs of good and unchanged economic activity. At the announcement on June 8 of 1Q GDP we expect a 2.5% non-annualized growth that, if confirmed, would strongly support our estimate of a 7.0% growth for FY2010. On June 9, we anticipate announcement of the IPCA inflation index for May, which we expect to reach 0.45% (for June figures we expect a sharp reduction to around 0.3% that, if confirmed, would increase confidence in the growth trend of the GDP). On the same day, we expect announcement of the official Selic interest rate, when we anticipate another 0.75% hike as part of a measure to avoid the deterioration of the outlook for inflation.

    See  full report Brazil_-_Monthly_Allocation_-_June_2010

    Source: IXE Banif, 01.06.2010

    Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, Exchanges, Latin America, News, Risk Management , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    June 1, 2010 • 1:43 am 0

    Brazil’s economy may be overheating: Roubini

    Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global financial crisis, said the Brazilian, Chinese and Indian economies may be overheating and developing asset bubbles.

    The outlook for Brazil’s economy is “very positive,” though the crisis in the Eurozone countries and a slow “u- shaped” recovery globally could dent the country’s growth, Roubini said today at an event in Sao Paulo. “In Brazil, like in many other emerging market economies, there is now evidence of overheating of the economy,” Roubini said. “Expected and actual inflation is starting to rise, and that implies that over the next few quarters there has to be a tightening of monetary policy, gradually but progressively, in order to make sure that inflation expectations remain anchored.” Roubini recommended that Brazilian policy makers take steps to limit the appreciation of the real, including the “judicious” use of capital controls.

    Source: IXE, 31.05.2010

    Filed under: Asia, Brazil, China, India, Latin America, News, Risk Management , , , , , , , ,