FiNETIK – Asia and Latin America – Market News Network

Asia and Latin America News Network focusing on Financial Markets, Energy, Environment, Commodity and Risk, Trading and Data Management

December 31, 2010 • 4:40 am 0

Andean Exchange Project MILA to Proceed without Peru

Peru’s Bolsa de Valores de Lima (BVL) has suspended its participation in Mercado Integrado LatinoAmericano (MILA), a link-up between BVL, the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (BVC) and Chile’s Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago (BCS), citing challenges arising from its domestic tax regime.

MILA was created to provide domestic brokers with access across the three participating equity markets through an automated model of intermediated order routers. Once live, the platform will allow brokers in each country to send DMA orders via the infrastructure of local brokers in the other two countries, directly to the exchanges.  The second stage of the integration – slated for completion by the end of 2011 – will seek to address differences in tax and regulation by coordinating regulatory bodies’ and exchanges’ rules across Chile, Colombia and Peru.

The Colombian and Chilean market infrastructure providers will continue working on the integration project, and are evaluating the impact the news will have on the current work schedule and the timing of the implementation.

Source: The Trader, 23.12.2010

Filed under: Chile, Colombia, Exchanges, Latin America, News, Peru, Trading Technology, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

December 28, 2010 • 11:41 pm 0

Deal Brief: Argentine Vineyards

For so long a ‘sleeping giant’ in the wine industry, Argentina is now creating a buzz on world markets.  The largest Latin American producer—and sixth biggest in the world—is one of the hottest prospects as its intense, high-altitude wines and competitive costs seduce collectors and supermarket shoppers alike.

Drawing on extensive research and interviews with industry experts, this ‘deal brief’ will examine why the international wine community is focused on Argentina right now, how this is stirring interest in vineyard real estate in the South American giant, and what are the different assets available for investors.

Read the full report at :
http://www.alternativelatininvestor.com/DealBrief-ArgentineVineyards.pdf

Source: ALI, 27.12.2010

Filed under: Argentina, Latin America, News, , , , , ,

December 26, 2010 • 11:43 pm 0

BlackRock lista 7 nuevos ETF de indices de Asia, Polonia, Brazil y renta fija International en Mexico

Ciudad de México, 26 de diciembre de 2010 – El pasado jueves 23 de diciembre, empezaron a negociarse en el Sistema Internacional de Cotizaciones (SIC) de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) 7 nuevos ETFs iShares internacionales, patrocinados por Deutsche Securities, S.A. de C.V., Casa de Bolsa y administrados por BlackRock, en lo que constituye el cuarto paquete de ETFs iShares listados en el SIC el presente año.

Los 7 ETFs iShares que integran este paquete brindan exposición a índices de renta variable internacional de mercados emergentes y de Asia no emergente, así como de renta fija internacional.

Los ETFs iShares listados en el SIC son:

Nombre Clave de pizarra % Gastos Aprobado por CONSAR
Instrumentos de renta variable
iShares MSCI China Small Cap Index Fund ECNS 0.65 No
iShares MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund EIDO 0.65 No
iShares MSCI New Zealand Investable Market Index Fund ENZL 0.55 No
iShares MSCI Poland Investable Market Index Fund EPOL 0.65 No
iShares MSCI Brazil Small Cap Index Fund EWZS 0.65 No
Instrumentos de renta fija
iShares FTSE Gilts UK 0-5 IGLS 0.20 No
iShares DEX Short Term Bond Index Fund XSB 0.25 No

Estos 7 ETFs iShares permiten tener acceso a un perfil de inversión representado por el dinámico sector de empresas de baja capitalización de economías que han tenido desempeños recientes interesantes, como la china, indonesia, neozelandesa, polaca o brasileña.

Por ejemplo, el iShares MSCI China Small Cap Index Fund mantiene una posición diversificada en empresas chinas de baja capitalización del sector automotriz, minero, tecnológico, de bienes raíces, energético, cementero y de materias primas, entre muchos otros.

Las carteras, desempeños recientes, retornos históricos, prospectos y otros datos de interés de estos nuevos ETFs pueden ser consultados en www.iShares.com.mx.

“Con este cuarto paquete de ETFs iShares listados en el SIC este año, culmina un 2010 de intensa actividad para BlackRock en México, pues arrancamos con 126 ETFs, y estamos cerrando con un total de 168: 146 ETFs listados en el Sistema Internacional de Cotizaciones y 12 ETFs listados en el mercado local de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV). Asimismo, pasamos de 10 mil millones a 14 mil millones de dólares en activos bajo administración para clientes en México a través de los ETFs iShares, en cuentas segregadas y clientes institucionales. Ambos indicadores ratifican nuestra posición de liderazgo en esta industria”, indicó Isaac Volin, Director Ejecutivo de BlackRock México.

A escala internacional, BlackRock también mantuvo su liderazgo este año con un total de activos gestionados globalmente por 3.45 billones de dólares (trillion dollars), al 30 de septiembre de 2010.

Con los ETFs iShares de BlackRock, los inversionistas mexicanos tuvieron por primera vez en 2004 acceso desde México a una amplia gama de vehículos de inversión con exposición a diferentes clases de activos internacionales, que les han permitido conformar portafolios mejor diversificados para optimizar rendimientos ajustados por riesgo.

BlackRock está firmemente comprometido a poner al alcance de los inversionistas mexicanos la familia más completa y diversificada de vehículos de inversión para tener acceso a todas las clases de activos disponibles a escala global. A su vez, ofrece acceso a inversionistas internacionales a instrumentos de activos mexicanos que contribuyen al financiamiento y desarrollo de México.

Source: BlackRock 26.12.2010

Filed under: BMV - Mexico, Brazil, China, Indonesia, Mexico, News, , , , , , , , , , ,

December 24, 2010 • 11:57 pm 0

Mexico – China: Love at first sight – 见钟情

Love at first sight – 见钟情 

Only a few are lucky to be able to share the fact that they were fortunate enough to meet their other half through love at first sight. For most, finding their partner is usually preceded by several unfruitful relationships, until the right one appears. When it comes to business, Mexican and Chinese companies usually follow the same path to find their soul mates.

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At an investment seminar held in Mexico, a government official stated “no matter whether they are Chinese or Mexican, enterprises from both countries need to invest time and resources to travel, go out with, and get to know business partners; eventually, this growing relationship will become a marriage, and if it all goes well, it will bring their own offspring”. 

At the Chinese Services Group we have identified some key points Chinese or Mexican companies should be aware of when getting married to a local missing half as means of doing business in China or Mexico.

Your partner is not that in to you? Why companies cannot get the girl!

In China, guān xì (关系), which literally means relationship, still plays a significant role when it comes to making things happen. A business practice that relies on personal connections or network of contacts that will ensure business success. In Mexico, compadrazgo (co-godparenthood) has a similar role than guān xì in China. People are usually asked to be a padrino or madrina (godparent) to an ahijado or ahijada (godchild). Through this agreement, an acquaintance may be selected as a means to strengthen business ties.

While both may be effective at some level, this not necessarily means companies should exclusively rely on getting to know their missing half by guān xì or compadrazgo. Usually, this approach does not consider whether your partner has the skills and resources to compete with players that have been in the market for years, or if they have the knowledge to handle your product and execute successful aftermarket services to retain clients.

It is not me, it is you! Finding your missing half is one thing… keeping them happy is another.

During the last decade, Mexican players from same industries have travelled to China to procure or to find local sales representatives. Once they have found them, they face the fact that companies from all over the world are doing the same thing: bringing new products with competitive prices, committing marketing budgets, and even establishing local representative offices.

At the same time, Chinese entrepreneurs are no longer waiting at the Canton Trade Fair to meet new clients. Once they come to Mexico, they rely on their existing contacts and underestimate hidden business opportunities in partnering with family-owned companies: a group that largely exceeds the public listed organizations.

Where is this relationship going? We need to talk.

Non discussing future goals at the beginning of a growing romance may be potentially challenged with partners having different long term objectives. One may expect immediate returns while the other is focused on market share and brand building. Another may also arise on geographies and distribution channels that will be covered under the new marriage. Not to mention, among many others issues, that any of them may consider bringing a third party into the relationship.

How to meet your local missing half

When compared to building business from scratch, entering into any new business relationship with a local partner offers significant potential advantages: expanding product portfolio, immediate access to the market, reducing the curve of the learning experience, etc.

At the same time, it carries a significant degree of risk. This is particularly true in emerging economies like Mexico and China where inadequate corporate governance and lack of reliable information is common. Therefore, before getting married, it is highly recommendable to carefully define who may be “the partner of your dreams”; once you have identified them in the local market, you should conduct a multidisciplinary due diligence before committing to a mortgage together or having offspring.

At the Chinese Services Group we will not be able to help you find out who your missing half is, but we do have the experience and unmatched value added services to help you succeed in business partnering in China or Mexico.
José Luis Enciso
CSG Mexico Manager
Deloitte MexicoSource: Deloitte, 22.10.2010 by Deloitte_Contacto@deloittemexico.com

Filed under: Asia, China, Latin America, Mexico, , , ,

December 24, 2010 • 12:03 am 0

BlackRock Forecast: 2011 may be a rerun of 2010 for global economy

London, December 22nd, 2010 – Richard Urwin, Head of Investment within BlackRock’s Fiduciary Mandate Team, believes 2011 is likely to be another positive year for global equities and other risk assets, despite persistent headwinds.

Expanding on this view, Richard offers the following outlook for the global economy in 2011:

  • Inflation risk remains low in developed economies, but is more pronounced in emerging markets: For the developed economies, 2011 is expected to be a year in which central banks see inflation as too low rather than accelerating. Low inflation does not imply deflation. Indeed, if deflation risk were to rise, so should the degree of monetary stimulus from central banks.  While the inflation risk in emerging economies is significant, inflation is unlikely to accelerate substantially.
  • Economic growth should continue through 2011: Global growth could be more balanced with developed markets contributing more to growth next year as the momentum built up in the second half of 2010 continues. For instance, growth in Germany, Japan and the UK in recent quarters has averaged between and 3% and 4%.
  • The demise of the euro is a very low probability event: The most significant event to affect financial markets in 2010 was arguably the European sovereign debt crisis. This is likely to have a significant influence on markets well into 2011 and beyond, given that southern Europe faces an extended period of retrenchment. However, the demise of the euro is very improbable.
  • There is no sign of irrational exuberance in equity market valuations: On the contrary, equity multiples towards the end of 2010 appear modest by historical standards. We believe the market reflects concerns about the length and strength of the global economic recovery. In these circumstances, additional returns to risk assets do not require utopian outturns, rather an environment in which challenging news is simply not quite as challenging as expected.
  • Equity returns in 2011 will be heavily dependent on the global cycle: Valuations are not so supportive that equity markets could rise on material growth disappointments, even if these stop short of recession. In addition, corporate earnings growth could slow from the strong rates of the past year or so.  Similarly, with a moderately favourable cyclical background, most forms of credit should outperform sovereign bond returns.
  • The low level of bond yields implies low returns to bonds in the medium term: However, for yields to back up significantly in 2011, one of two conditions would have to apply. Either global growth or inflation picks up enough so that central banks abandon their easy-money policy and raise interest policy rates sharply, or concerns over large and sustained budget deficits increase.
  • Policy rates in developed economies are expected to be kept low: We doubt that animal spirits will recover in 2011 even if global savings fall significantly. Hence, the catalyst for significant increases in bond yields during 2011 appears lacking. This suggests that government bond yields, excluding those in peripheral euro zone countries, will remain at stretched valuations for an extended period, delivering negative real returns.

Richard commented:  “In some respects, 2011 may feel like a re-run of this year.  Equities are likely to grind higher – with emerging market equities outperforming modestly rather than spectacularly, partly as a result of currency appreciation in these markets – while commodities could make further gains as supply/demand imbalances persist.

“The most marked difference in returns from 2010 could emerge in the sovereign debt market, with the headwind of very low yields. While diversification into corporate bonds and other non-government debt could add value, the scope for material spread narrowing is more limited. In short, 2011 could be another year where many investors find it difficult to take investment risk.  It is, however, likely to pay off.”

Notes to Editors:

Richard Urwin, Managing Director, is the head of Investments within BlackRock’s Fiduciary Mandate Investment team (FMIT). Mr. Urwin is responsible for asset allocation and manager selection within the fiduciary client base.

Source: BlackRock, 22.12.2010

Filed under: News, , , , , , , , , ,

December 20, 2010 • 10:08 am 0

10 Trends for 2011 by Gerald Celente

After the tumultuous years of the Great Recession, a battered people may wish that 2011 will bring a return to kinder, gentler times. But that is not what we are predicting. Instead, the fruits of government and institutional action – and inaction – on many fronts will ripen in unplanned-for fashions.

Trends we have previously identified, and that have been brewing for some time, will reach maturity in 2011, impacting just about everyone in the world.

1. Wake-Up Call In 2011, the people of all nations will fully recognize how grave economic conditions have become, how ineffectual and self-serving the so-called solutions have been, and how dire the consequences will be. Having become convinced of the inability of leaders and know-it-all “arbiters of everything” to fulfill their promises, the people will do more than just question authority, they will defy authority. The seeds of revolution will be sown….

2. Crack-Up 2011 Among our Top Trends for last year was the “Crash of 2010.” What happened? The stock market didn’t crash. We know. We made it clear in our Autumn Trends Journal that we were not forecasting a stock market crash – the equity markets were no longer a legitimate indicator of recovery or the real state of the economy. Yet the reliable indicators (employment numbers, the real estate market, currency pressures, sovereign debt problems) all bordered between crisis and disaster. In 2011, with the arsenal of schemes to prop them up depleted, we predict “Crack-Up 2011″: teetering economies will collapse, currency wars will ensue, trade barriers will be erected, economic unions will splinter, and the onset of the “Greatest Depression” will be recognized by everyone….

3. Screw the People As times get even tougher and people get even poorer, the “authorities” will intensify their efforts to extract the funds needed to meet fiscal obligations. While there will be variations on the theme, the governments’ song will be the same: cut what you give, raise what you take.

4. Crime Waves No job + no money + compounding debt = high stress, strained relations, short fuses. In 2011, with the fuse lit, it will be prime time for Crime Time. When people lose everything and they have nothing left to lose, they lose it. Hardship-driven crimes will be committed across the socioeconomic spectrum by legions of the on-the-edge desperate who will do whatever they must to keep a roof over their heads and put food on the table….

5. Crackdown on Liberty As crime rates rise, so will the voices demanding a crackdown. A national crusade to “Get Tough on Crime” will be waged against the citizenry. And just as in the “War on Terror,” where “suspected terrorists” are killed before proven guilty or jailed without trial, in the “War on Crime” everyone is a suspect until proven innocent….

6. Alternative Energy In laboratories and workshops unnoticed by mainstream analysts, scientific visionaries and entrepreneurs are forging a new physics incorporating principles once thought impossible, working to create devices that liberate more energy than they consume. What are they, and how long will it be before they can be brought to market? Shrewd investors will ignore the “can’t be done” skepticism, and examine the newly emerging energy trend opportunities that will come of age in 2011….

7. Journalism 2.0 Though the trend has been in the making since the dawn of the Internet Revolution, 2011 will mark the year that new methods of news and information distribution will render the 20th century model obsolete. With its unparalleled reach across borders and language barriers, “Journalism 2.0″ has the potential to influence and educate citizens in a way that governments and corporate media moguls would never permit. Of the hundreds of trends we have forecast over three decades, few have the possibility of such far-reaching effects….

8. Cyberwars Just a decade ago, when the digital age was blooming and hackers were looked upon as annoying geeks, we forecast that the intrinsic fragility of the Internet and the vulnerability of the data it carried made it ripe for cyber-crime and cyber-warfare to flourish. In 2010, every major government acknowledged that Cyberwar was a clear and present danger and, in fact, had already begun. The demonstrable effects of Cyberwar and its companion, Cybercrime, are already significant – and will come of age in 2011. Equally disruptive will be the harsh measures taken by global governments to control free access to the web, identify its users, and literally shut down computers that it considers a threat to national security….

9. Youth of the World Unite University degrees in hand yet out of work, in debt and with no prospects on the horizon, feeling betrayed and angry, forced to live back at home, young adults and 20-somethings are mad as hell, and they’re not going to take it anymore. Filled with vigor, rife with passion, but not mature enough to control their impulses, the confrontations they engage in will often escalate disproportionately. Government efforts to exert control and return the youth to quiet complacency will be ham-fisted and ineffectual. The Revolution will be televised … blogged, YouTubed, Twittered and….

10. End of The World! The closer we get to 2012, the louder the calls will be that the “End is Near!” There have always been sects, at any time in history, that saw signs and portents proving the end of the world was imminent. But 2012 seems to hold a special meaning across a wide segment of “End-time” believers. Among the Armageddonites, the actual end of the world and annihilation of the Earth in 2012 is a matter of certainty. Even the rational and informed that carefully follow the news of never-ending global crises, may sometimes feel the world is in a perilous state. Both streams of thought are leading many to reevaluate their chances for personal survival, be it in heaven or on earth….

See also http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html

Source: Gerald Celente, Trendsresearch, 18.12.2010

Filed under: Banking, Energy & Environment, News, Risk Management, Services, Wealth Management, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

December 15, 2010 • 10:52 pm 1

Kroll LATAM Risk Report December 2010: Brazil Land Ownership & Infrastructure Fraud, Private Banking KYC, Colombia Corruption

FRAUD – Brazil – Steering Clear of the Potholes
Brazil has committed to billions of dollars worth of infrastructure investments in preparation for the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games. The opportunities for international suppliers, contractors and investors are considerable. So, too, are the risks of fraud.

Vander Giordano, Sao Paulo & Allie Nichols, New York  GO TO FULL STORY

CORRUPTION – Colombia – Battling Fraud & Corruption
By leveraging public outrage, the new administration of President Juan Manuel Santos has an opportunity to change Colombia’s “anything goes” culture and attack the scourge of corruption with a new sense of purpose.

Andrés Otero, Miami & Ernesto Carrasco, Bogota GO TO FULL STORY

PRIVATE BANKING – The Good, the Bad & the Ugly
For private bankers, there’s nothing more enticing than the prospect of landing a wealthy foreign client, but the client’s background and source of funds must be carefully analyzed. Often, only an enhanced due diligence will identify the risks.

John Price, Miami GO TO FULL STORY

LAND RIGHTS – Brazil – Sending the Wrong Message
Turning back the clock, the Brazilian government tightens land rights legislation, restricting land purchases for foreign companies and individuals. Real Estated

Paulo Sérgio Franco & Scheila Santos São Paulo  GO TO FULL STORY

Source: Kroll, 14.12.2010

Filed under: Banking, Brazil, Colombia, Latin America, News, Risk Management, Services, Wealth Management, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

December 14, 2010 • 11:36 pm 0

BM&FBovespa and Chile’s bolsa sign “joint operating agreement”

Brazil and Chile’s main exchanges, BM&FBovespa and Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago (BCS), signed a “joint operating agreement” on Monday allowing order routing between the two and which envisions Brazilian assistance in the development of derivatives markets in Chile.  Read FT full article here.

The development is another sign that exchanges in Latin America are gearing up for intra-regional competition for trading coming from abroad as regulatory technology barriers to easier access to the region are falling away.

Some exchanges are also forming alliances with neighbours to develop smaller markets to the levels of regional big-hitters Brazil and Mexico.

Brokers connected to BM&FBovespa, Latin America’s largest exchange, can send orders to Chile’s Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago (BCS), and vice versa in an arrangement that is also being used by BM&FBovespa and the Mexican bolsa with CME Group of the US.

The Brazil-Chile arrangement will initially be limited to stocks traded on both exchanges, as well as stock options and other related derivatives.

Carlos Kawall, director of international affairs at BM&FBovespa, told FT Trading Room by phone from Santiago. “We are undertaking an international expansion, in Asia but most importantly in our region, because we think that Latin America as an integrated unit has a lot of potential to be explored yet.”

The BCS last month joined an “Andean” alliance with smaller exchanges in Colombia and Peru, which gives traders in each country access to partner markets. Next year they plan to allow for direct access to markets and the standardisation of regulation.

Brazil will seek alliances with Colombia and Peru similar to that signed with Chile, Mr Kawall said.

In the first year, the focus of the agreement with Chile will be to “improve connectivity electronically from the country”, he says, but with the later possibility of assisting Chile develop its derivatives markets, encompassing options and futures on stocks, interest rates, and exchange rates.

BM&FBovespa is the third-largest exchange in the world by market capitalisation of the group itself and houses the world’s sixth-largest derivatives market by number of contracts. At the moment, most of Chile’s derivatives trading is done over the counter, rather than centrally cleared and with a counter party, as in Brazil.

By partnering up with Brazil, Chile’s exchange will also have access to the BM&FBovespa/CME trading platform for its markets. BM&FBovespa holds a 5 per cent stake in CME Group. Edemir Pinto, chief executive of the Brazilian group, was recently named to the board of directors of the Chicago-based group.

BM&FBovespa and BCS have also agreed to receive and distribute each other’s market data, and establishment joint initiatives related to settlement and clearing.

Source: FT Financial Times, 13.12.2010 By Vincent Bevins

Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Events, Exchanges, Latin America, Market Data, Mexico, Peru, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

December 8, 2010 • 10:36 pm 0

VAM: Vietnam Market Analysis November 2010

Market Update - November was characterized by mixed news flow. On the one hand, there were a couple of good macroeconomic developments, namely (i) the last quarter GDP growth expected at 7.24%, resulting in a full year growth of 6.7% versus 5.32% last year; (ii) capital inflows from disbursed foreign direct investment and official development assistance keeping improving; (iii) overseas remittances likely to reach US$ 7.2 billion in 2010 compared to US$ 6.6 billion in 2009; (iv) full year export growth expected to reach 23%, nearly quadrupling the governments earlier target of 6%, while imports growth will stay slower at 19% – 20%; (v) overall balance of payments expected to be $2 billion in deficit this year, down from last year’s deficit of $8.8 billion. VAM Monthly Newsletter – November ’10

On the other hand, ongoing accelerating inflation and volatile FX market continued to attract increasing concerns from policy makers as well as market participants. November CPI increased by 1.86% from October, marking the third consecutive MoM increase above 1% after six months being kept under this threshold. November number brought year-to-date figure to 9.58% and full year CPI is being forecasted to stand at 11-12%. The FX market, too, heated up during November, with the greenback being offered at 21,500 dong/dollar in the unofficial market at month end, 10.25% higher than the official ceiling band of 19,500 despite the governments announcement early in the month that it would allow the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to use the foreign reserves to inject dollars into the market and that the SBV had no plan to further depreciate the dong until the Lunar New Year (February 2011).

Strong rally in the local gold price in the past few months has been a major cause for the FX situation and panicky market sentiment. After the SBVs decision to allow gold import in early November, local gold prices started to cool down and got to around VND35.9 million per tael (local unit for gold, equivalent to about 1.2556 troy ounce) at the end of the month compared to its all time record high at VND38.2 million per tael at mid-November.

As GDP growth target for this year has been achieved, the governments focus now moves to curbing inflation and cooling the FX and gold markets to stabilise the macro environment. They implemented successive tightening monetary measures in November, such as (i) raising interest rates by 1% per annum (VND base interest rate to 9% p.a., refinancing interest rate to 9% p.a., discount rate to 7% p.a., and overnight rate to 9%); (ii) removing cap on both deposit and lending rates for banks. Toward month end, many banks increased the deposit rate for VND to 13-14% per year. Some smaller commercial banks even offered borrowing rates of 14.5-15% p.a. in an attempt to retaining their depositors and mobilising more capital for their increasing year-end lending demand. However, the desired effects on inflation of these tightening policies will be likely to be seen only from next year.
The VN-Index ended November at 451.59, down 1.5% on-month. During the month, we saw a divergence in the market trend, hitting the trough at mid month and then significantly picking up during the last week of the month. Additionally, the low average liquidity might indicate that retail investors were still cautious about the recovery of the equity market in the short-term.

Our View – We are not too bullish about the market in the short-term but equities have come down to the very attractive level. The negative macro situation has mostly been priced in so it might be a good time for investors to consider accumulating stocks. Nevertheless, we think the Government should be more transparent and proactive in implementing its monetary policy measures in order to restore investors confidence and to help the equity market sentiment.
We continue to like stocks in consumer staples, oil & gas, and materials. For a longer horizon we prefer materials, real estate and banking sectors. In this time of volatility, we recommend that our investors keep close tabs on macroeconomic developments for signs of recovery and stability before jumping in.
Source: VAM, 08.12.2010

Filed under: News, Vietnam, Wealth Management, , , , , , , , ,

December 4, 2010 • 2:25 am 0

Alternative Latin Investor Issue 7 November/December

Alternative Latin Investor Issue 7 November/December 2010 click here for a free issue Issue 7  

Content Index

Infrastructure
  • Investing in listed shares of Latin American Infrastructure Companies
Emerging Markets
  • Latin America vs. Asia
Agribusiness
  • Ahuacatl: A Fruite for the Ages
Art
  •  Latin American Art Gains Momentum in Europa
Commodities
  • Brazil’s Energy Industry in the Wake of New South
Philanthropy
  • One Economy: Leveraging the Power of Technology to Improve Lives
Profiles
  • ALI Speaks with Bertrand Delgado: Senior Analyst for Emerging Markets and Latin America at Roubini Global Economics
Real Estate
  • Finding and Entrance into Mexico’s Affordable Housing Construction Finance Market.
FOREX
  • Increasing Threat of Currency “WAR’s” to Ignite 4th Quarter FX Activity?
Renewable Energy
  • Argentina’s Energy Framework: Preparing for an Onslaught of Renewable Energy Investment
  • Winds of Change: Harnessing Wind Energy in Brazil
Regulations
  •  New Bills Proposed to Amend the Law on Finance Entities in Argentina
Opinion
  • How will Nestor’s Passing Affect Argentina
Ventures
  • ALI speaks with Element 360 Founder, Chad Martin

Source: Alternative Latin Investor 02.12.2010

Filed under: Argentina, Banking, Brazil, Central America, Chile, Colombia, Energy & Environment, Exchanges, Latin America, Mexico, Risk Management, Wealth Management, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

December 2, 2010 • 6:43 am 0

Brazil:High Volatility Still Prevailing – December 2010 – IXE BANI-Monthly Analysis

Tension in Europe and USA likely to overshadow positive economic news.
Brazil – Monthly Allocation – December 2010

While key indicators of economic activity in Europe, USA and Asia point to an acceleration of growth in 4Q10, prospects for the international environment up to the year-end cause concern, since chances are that the problems affecting some of the “peripheral” countries in the Euro Zone as well as the USA will continue to weigh on the financial markets. In the Euro Zone, Ireland is likely to remain a major source of volatility in the next few weeks due to the instability of its financial system and the political debility of its current administration.

Nevertheless, even more relevant is the renewed market pressure on Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, which has led to the resurfacing of fears on the future of the Euro. Meanwhile, in the USA, legislation on temporary tax breaks to individuals expires at the end of this year and must be renewed. However, the Obama administration is likely to face difficulties in rapidly getting this from the new Congress. In all, despite the possible positive news from the economic front, the international environment is likely to weigh on the financial markets.

Main local risk is the deterioration of inflation expectations, while doubts on the economic policy mix might bring volatility
In Brazil, Dilma’s election was expected to maintain a high degree of economic predictability and indeed, the appointment of the new administration’s economic team underscores the perception of continuity. However, some contradictory signs have generated doubts regarding the economic policy mix in the new administration. For example, the pro-cyclical structure of government spending is not aligned with the supposed goal to reduce real interest rates to around 2% to 3% in coming years. Another example of contradiction is Dilma´s  commitment to control inflation vis-avis the pressure on the integration between the Central Bank and the other economic authorities, which might reduce the BCB´s autonomy.

In this context, a decision on the minimum wage, to be taken by the end of the year, and the Central Bank´s attitude towards the deterioration of inflation expectations are key factors and could lead to an increase in market volatility.  Hence, from the point of view of the macro-economic agenda, prospects for the financial markets in the next few weeks appear more uncertain than usual.

In the face of this, we have changed our portfolio by reducing its size by two names, eliminating CSN and Tractebel. We have also substituted Guararapes for Lojas Americanas so as to reap the benefits of Christmas more efficiently, and we have also increased the weights of Bradesco and Hering (both from 5 to 10%).

Source: IXE-Banif, 01.12.2010

Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, Latin America, News, , , , , , , ,

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