VAM Market Update – Vietnams GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.9% in 1H09, meaning in 2Q09 GDP growth rallied to 4.5% up from 3.1% in 1Q09. The resilient growth story continues to be driven by industrial production, renewed momentum in construction, and consumer driven categories. The data suggests the 4.5-5% GDP growth rate consensus prediction for Vietnam in 2009 is on track.
Monthly inflation was again positive in June up 0.55%, but on a YoY basis has dropped to just 3.94%. The trade deficit for 1H09 is estimated at US$2.1 bn, equalling 14.7% in the same period last year with export growth down 10.1% and import growth down 34.1%. Vietnam has received capital inflows of roughly US$8 bn in 1H09 from FDI and ODA disbursement and overseas remittances keeping the balance of payments in a healthy position for the time being.
However, FDI which is a major driver in the Vietnam growth story is slowing down, with commitments in 1H09 estimated at US$8.87 bn down 77.4% on year and also on pace to fall below 2007 levels. The local USD/VND exchange rate remains virtually unchanged.
The VN-Index was up 8.9% in June to 448.29, but corrected strongly down 12.5% from a June 9th peak of 512.46. In June, the average daily traded value on the VN-Index surpassed the US$100 ml mark reaching US$108.3 ml per day, roughly 12 times the average daily traded value in February 09. In other market news, the much awaited and delayed launch of the UpCom market occurred on June 24th with 10 OTC companies listed for the trial run which will run through July. It is expected the market will bring greater liquidity and transparency to the OTC market in Vietnam.
Read full article and market statistics at VAM Monthly Newsletter – Jun 2009
Source: Vietnam Asset Management 08.07.2009
Filed under: Asia, News, Services, Vietnam , Asset Management, Exchanges, HOSE Ho Chi Ming Stock Exchange, Investment, Market Analysis, Performance Report, VAM Vietnam Asset Management, Vietnam
