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Is Data Modeling Still Relevant?

Some people believe data modeling has become very passé these days. The belief is that because data modeling theory is more than 30 years old and, because some data modeling tools have been around for 10 to 20 years, somehow data modeling is no longer relevant. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, data modeling may now be more necessary than ever before.

While there are other modeling techniques and notations, such as business process modeling and Unified Modeling Language, the need to accurately capture business data requirements and transform them into a reliable database structural design is as paramount as ever. The key differentiator is that data modeling is the only technique and notation that focuses on the “data at rest.” All the others tend to focus more on “data in motion.” Put another way data modeling concentrates on issues that lead to a solid database design, while others approaches tend to focus more on issues that will result in better application design or things useful to programmers, such as data structures, objects, classes, methods and application code generation.
Case in point: I’ve personally served as an expert witness in several court trials where plaintiffs sued defendants for serious financial remuneration when custom database applications had performance and/or data accuracy problems. In every case, there was a failure to data model the business requirements. Thus, the data effectiveness suffered. Moreover, ad hoc database design, or database design using more programmatic-oriented techniques and tools, often resulted in inefficient database design. No amount of coding could overcome the resulting bad database design. So, in every case, the plaintiff won.
The other reason data modeling has seen measurable resurgence is the data warehousing phenomenon. With cheap storage these days, most companies can afford, and benefit from, retaining historical aggregate and/or summary data for making significant strategic decisions. With the accumulation of numerous source legacy online transaction processing systems, there are two key ways to approach populating a data warehouse: directly from source to warehouse (as shown in Figure 1) or through an intermediary database often referred to as an operational data store (as shown in Figure 2).
Sufficient debate exists as to which approach is superior, but I won’t address that here. Regardless of which approach is selected, the database design (i.e., the data at rest) is paramount because, in a data warehouse, the data itself – and the business information it contains – is the most relevant and valuable asset. Typical data warehouse queries and reports issued via business intelligence tools process that asset to yield strategic decision-making results.
The other key area where data modeling often supports the whole data warehousing and BI effort is the mapping of legacy data fields to their DW and BI counterparts. This metadata mapping about how frontline business data maps to the data warehouse helps with the design of both queries and/or reports, as well as with extract, transform and load programming efforts. Without such mapping, there would be no automatic tie to the dependent data warehousing information as OLTP legacy systems evolve. Hence, one would have to almost totally re-engineer rather than simply follow the OLTP source data ramifications and ripples downstream to the DW and BI endpoints.
For those not involved with data warehousing projects – perhaps those performing more traditional OLTP-type systems development – data modeling still is important. Often, however, people get so caught up in novel paradigms such as extreme programming, agile software development or scrum that they compromise data modeling, or even skip it entirely. The problem is that these new approaches don’t always spell out exactly how data modeling should be incorporated, so people often forego it.
My belief is that no matter what latest and greatest approach you use, data modeling should be integrated into your development process wherever it makes sense. Figure 3 shows how both conceptual and physical data modeling should fit into an overall database design process – whether it’s for a totally new system or for one that’s being updated or re-engineered.
There is one final reason why data modeling has been getting more attention these days. In many cases, organizations finally are requiring data models as a sign-off deliverable of the development process. I attribute this to their attempt to adhere to the Software Engineering Institute’s Capability Maturity Model and Capability Maturity Model Integration concepts. The idea here is quite simple: to mature your development process regardless of technique, you need to develop in terms of both the processes and tools used to achieve the desired better end result. Both processes and tools can lead to maturity, helpig to reinvigorate many peoples’ interest in data modeling.
Now comes the hard part. Which data modeling tool should you use? That might seem like a tough or loaded question; there are numerous data modeling tools available. Plus, many enterprise modeling suites contain data modeling capabilities. Rather than advise any particular tool, I’m going to outline some basic guidelines for things to avoid. I believe that any tool that meets some standard and minimal requirements will help you produce effective and efficient data models – and, hence, the resulting databases.
Avoid drawing tools that aspire to be data modeling tools. A good data modeling tool supports defining tons of metadata with business relevance. Think of the diagram as just the tip of the iceberg – where you don’t see the 90 percent of the mass that is underwater. The same is true for data modeling. If you concentrate only on what the picture is, you’ll probably compromise the effectiveness of the resulting database.
Choose a tool that fits your needs. Often, people purchase a killer modeling tool that offers everything imaginable. But, if all you need or will use is the data modeling portion, why pay for more? The key concern here is that the more any tool does besides data modeling, the better the chance its data modeling capabilities may have been compromised to do everything else. Sometimes more is not better.
Data definition language. This is another case where more might not be better. It is better if your tool supports 100 percent accurate CREATE or ALTER scripts for a few databases important to you than all of them at a lesser level. But be very careful – the DDL generated by many tools, even those focusing on just a few databases, can often generate less than optimal DDL. You have to know what to look for; so, engage your database administrator in making the decision, just to be safe.
Verify that your data modeling tool provides robust model consistency and accuracy checking reports and/or utilities. As data models grow (and they will), it can be quite overwhelming to have to manually check everything. And you cannot expect the poor DBA to sanity check the thousands or tens of thousands of DDL lines a data modeling tool can quickly generate. Effectiveness is mostly on your shoulders, but efficiency can be aided by good data modeling checking utilities.
Data modeling has come a long way since its inception. Even though the heydays of CASE and software engineering passed with the ‘90s, the need for and usefulness of data models has not subsided. Data modeling can assist with any effort, regardless of development methodology or paradigm. So, don’t pass on data modeling just because it’s a mature technique – you might be very sorry if you do.

Source: Information Management, 28.05.2009 by Bert Scalzo


Filed under: Data Management, Library, News, Risk Management, , , ,

Data Warehousing – Change Management In A Challenging Environment

The way in which data warehouse developments and solutions are viewed is changing. The emphasis is less on the technological problems, many of which have been solved, and more on the day-to- day issues of living and working with a data warehouse. These issues include:

  • Configuration/Change Management
  • Managing and Improving Data Quality
  • Engagement with the Enterprise Architecture
  • Enhancing Return on Investment

These issues affect both new developments and existing solutions. The solutions to these issues are information based and process driven, i.e. we need information about what is happening and why it is happening in the system in order to drive the processes in both the development and operational environments that manage it.

Download:DataWarehouse Change Management Environment 2009
This white paper investigates the issues that are affecting the data warehouse environment. The paper will also look at how the issues might be addressed and at a tool that can help.

Source: IRMuk.co.uk 28.05.2009, by David Walker

Filed under: Data Management, Library, News, Reference Data, Risk Management, Standards, , , ,

DTCC, Swift and XBRL US team on corporate actions processing

The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), Swift and XBRL US have joined forces in a bid to improve communications between issuers and investors for corporate action announcements in the US market.

The partners claim they will “fundamentally change” corporate actions announcement processing, bringing greater accuracy, and reduced risks and costs by improving transparency and communication between issuers and investors.

The firms say that on average, approximately 200,000 corporate actions such as dividends, bond redemptions, rights offerings and mergers are announced each year by publicly traded companies and other issuers or offerors in the US.

Because the processing of these announcements throughout the corporate actions lifecycle is mostly handled manually, these practices remain beset by error-prone, time-consuming inefficiencies, creating the potential for heavy losses and significant negative impact on investors.

The partners cite a 2006 study from research firm Oxera which found losses on corporate actions worldwide were between $400 and $900 million each year.

The group’s plan, outlined in a statement of direction, will look to build on the existing ISO standards by integrating the benefits of XBRL electronic data tagging technology, already used by public issuers in the US, to streamline the processing of corporate action announcements.

The three organisations will work together on a corporate actions taxonomy, or classification, aligned with ISO 20022 repository elements.

This new taxonomy will support a seamless transition from issuer-generated documentation to data, using XBRL technology, enabling issuers to tag or electronically capture and identify key data, such as the terms of a reorganisation when preparing documents for a corporate action.

The data “tags” and elements will be aligned with ISO 20022, permitting XBRL-tagged data to be readily converted.

Swift will roll out the new ISO 20022 corporate actions messages on a global basis, which builds on the efficiencies gained through ISO 15022 adoption.

DTCC will make all corporate action announcements it publishes available in the ISO 20022 format beginning in 2010. All existing legacy publication files will be decommissioned by 2015.

Chris Church, CEO, Americas and global head of securities, Swift, says “our initiative will increase the return on investment for the industry’s existing market infrastructures by bringing greater efficiencies and reducing the costs and risks associated with processing corporate actions. Manual interpretation, re-keying and manual exceptions in corporate action processing will be significantly reduced.”

Source: FINEXTRA, 28.05.2009

Filed under: Corporate Action, Data Management, News, Reference Data, Risk Management, Services, Standards, , , , , , , ,

China, no more a low cost manufacturer, confronted by India and Mexico

China has lost its position as the world’s lowest-cost components manufacturer to India and Mexico, a study indicated on Wednesday, in a blow for the Asian giant as it fights the financial crisis.

Download: AlixPartners 2009 Manufacturing-Outsourcing Cost Index HIGHLIGHTS_2

The United States has also significantly closed the gap to the degree that China’s total manufacturing costs are now only 6 per cent below those of American factories, the study by AlixPartners business consultants indicated. “Gone are the days when companies could see cost savings of 30 per cent or more by making ‘no-brainer’ manufacturing-footprint and outsourcing decisions, to China in particular,” said Stephen Maurer, a managing director at the firm.

The company, which specialises in helping distressed businesses, compiled its Manufacturing-Outsourcing Cost Index by analysing a basket of manufactured components and assembled parts, ranging from small motors to die castings.

It compared the cost of making the items in China, India, Brazil and Mexico versus the US, tracking changes over three years in factors such as labour, overheads, exchange rates, transportation, and raw material costs. The index showed major shifts in costs over the past six months that pushed China down the rankings and Mexico now on top, the firm said in a statement.

It predicted China’s costs would improve in the second half of 2009, as more moderate oil prices and the economic slowdown reduced sea shipping costs, but added the country was unlikely to catch up with India and Mexico this year.

Manufacturing accounts for more than 40 per cent of the economy in China, which has been hit hard by evaporating demand for its products in key export markets such as the United States and Europe. But Chinese manufacturer activity has shown signs of expanding over the past two months after nine months of contraction.

Source: Business Times Singapore, 21.05.2009

Filed under: Asia, China, India, Latin America, Mexico, News, , , , , , , , , ,

The Carbon Rating Agency Publishes the First Risk Assessment of a Programme of Activities

Programmatic CDM is one of the most important developments in the CDM world and is attracting the interests of the most farsighted players in this space.  It is being recognised as the natural bridge between the first and the second commitment period, and it has great potential to enable the move from measuring tons to constructively affecting the emission trends of developing countries. However, there has been a very slow uptake due to regulatory and design issues.

Better understanding of the challenges inherent in programmatic CDM (pCDM) development is crucial to promote the uptake of the small scale projects under this very promising category.

The Carbon Rating Agency (CRA) has developed a unique risk assessment methodology to evaluate pCDM, which combines a bottom-up analysis of project activities with the specific considerations applicable for specific pCDM risks. The CRA’s pCDM evaluation process provides a comprehensive risk assessment enabling the project participants to understand both the registration risk of the PoA as well as the performance risks of the first and subsequent CPAs.

CRA is leading the way in setting the analytical framework for government and private sector participants to manage a successful pCDM capability, by developing rigorous risk assessment tools that can assist developing economies to be at the forefront of the imminent market needs.

CRA relies on its experienced team of senior advisors including Christiana Figueres (Vice Chair of the Carbon Rating Agency). She has been instrumental in developing the thinking on pCDM for several years, and remains involved in its implementation. Having joined the company in early 2008, Christiana has provided crucial insights for the development of the pCDM evaluation methodology.

CUIDEMOS Mexico CFL programme of activities

The first PoA assessed under the CRA Programmatic evaluation tool was the CFL distribution Programme CUIDEMOS Mexico. The rating provides an overview of the PoA structure and presents its main challenges.

The evaluation considers the risks related to the distribution plan, the incentives presented to the distribution partners and the target population, the coordination of the educational campaigns to promote the exchange of light bulbs and the verification process for CFL installation.

The financial feasibility of the PoA is evaluated in light of current CER prices and the variations in the exchange rate (US$/€) resultant from the financial crisis. Modelling of the possible price scenarios provide a revised approach of the expected PoA returns.

The Mexican CFL rating report has already been recognised as a useful instrument by developers engaged in pCDM:

“The pCDM Rating is a useful instrument to enhance investor’s confidence in pCDM. It contributes to better understanding of how PoAs are structured and what kind of support is needed for the expansion of such activities.”

Phil Cohn Cool Nrg International

It also received the support from other market participants: “The CRA analysis is crucial to understand how the program is intended to work and helps the reader to build an opinion on the risks associated with the program. I can only encourage the CRA to keep on with their analytical effort in this domain.”

Dr.Klaus Oppermann  KfW Bankengruppe

The Carbon Rating Agency is already engaged in evaluating PoAs in Asia and Africa. As the pCDM market develops, CRA envisages an increased need for an independent overview of all the risks perceived in such emerging mechanisms. CRA initiative of developing a specific tool for pCDM evaluation will assist companies getting involved in next generation emission reductions and enhance credibility in this market.

For a sample of the Mexican CFL report, please contact the Carbon Rating Agency: info@carbonratingsagency.com

Source: MondoVisione, 27.05.2009

Filed under: Asia, Energy & Environment, Latin America, Mexico, News, Risk Management, , , , , , , , , , ,

BMV – Bolsa Mexicana de Valores April 2009 Performance Report

Please click here to view the report.

Source: BMV, MondoVisione, 26.05.2009

Filed under: BMV - Mexico, Exchanges, Latin America, Mexico, News, , , , ,

Data is More Important Than Ever Before But Cultural Barriers Remain

The issue of data management is so important in the current market that it has been raised as a priority at the board level, according to a recent report conducted by Amber Group and commissioned by data integration consulting firm Evaxyx. The focus on improving risk analysis and reporting systems has meant that data management is finally in the spotlight. Click here for full article.

Download: Evaxyx Data Management Research Report April 2009

Source: Reference Data Review, 27.05.2009

Filed under: Banking, Data Management, News, Reference Data, Risk Management, Services, Standards, Wealth Management, , , , , , , ,

MetaBit Selects Solace Systems for Nex-Gen Trading Platform

OTTAWA and TOKYO, May 27, 2009 – Solace Systems, the leader in messaging middleware and content networking hardware, today announced that Tokyo-based trading technology provider MetaBit has selected Solace 3260 Content Routers to boost the performance of their trading platforms.

Both of MetaBit’s products – XiliX, an intuitive FIX-enabled multi-market DMA (Direct Market Access) trading platform, and MLH, its product-agnostic FIX Market Liquidity Hub – will be integrated with Solace’s low-latency, high throughput routing technology. Today’s traders know that each millisecond of advantage they hold over competitors can generate increased profits, so today’s connectivity providers must address their need for ever lower latency.

Providers that truly understand this problem are turning to hardware-based messaging technology, as middleware software running on general-purpose servers cannot meet current or future performance requirements. “MetaBit is dedicated to providing its clients with the best-of-breed technology they need to compete in today’s fast-paced markets,” said Daniel Burgin, CEO of MetaBit. “It became evident that Solace’s content routers would complement XiliX and MLH DMA solutions with the fastest speed and plenty of throughput headroom to meet MetaBit’s growing demand.” Solace’s field programmable gate array (FPGA) and network processor-based technology provides the fully failsafe, guaranteed messaging functionality that order and execution management systems require with extremely predictable and low latency.

“Solace’s technology is an excellent fit with MetaBit’s connectivity products as we’re able to provide an easily integrated, guaranteed and reliable messaging solution that offers superior performance and consistency when compared to traditional software,” said Crispin Clarke, SVP Asia and Latin America. “We are pleased to be working with a partner at the leading edge of high-performance DMA trading and order management solutions in Japan and Asia.”

Source: Meta-Bit, 27.05.2009

Filed under: Asia, FIX Connectivity, Hong Kong, Japan, Market Data, News, Trading Technology, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Malaysia, Singapore eye changes to economic models

Malaysia and Singapore said Friday they may tweak their economic models as a collapse in demand from the US and Europe sends the Southeast Asian neighbours into recession.

Malaysia plans to emphasize “greater creativity, innovation and high-value” as part of an effort to spark economic growth, prime minister Najib Razak said. Details of the plan would be announced “when we’re ready,” he said.

“We’re taking advantage of the current global downturn… to come up with a new economic model for Malaysia,” Najib said at a joint news conference with Singapore prime minister Lee Hsien Loong.

Malaysia and Singapore, which formed a single country from 1963 to 1965, have seen their exports plummet this year amid the worst global economic slowdown since World War II. The International Monetary Fund said earlier this month it expects Malaysia’s economy to shrink 3.5 percent in 2009 while Singapore’s will likely contract 10 percent.

Each country has announced major fiscal stimulus packages this year in a bid to boost domestic consumption.

The prime ministers also said they began discussions on building a third causeway between the two countries, which are separated by the Straits of Johor.

Singapore, which relies on trade, finance and tourism, will review over the next few months which manufacturing and services it may branch into, Lee said. “At the broadest level, our approaches are sound and have to remain,” Lee said. “But what sort of manufacturing, what new services? These are issues which we have to consider.”

Najib has already scrapped a requirement for 30 percent Malay ownership for companies in several sectors, such as health care and transport, as part of a pledge to roll back decades-old affirmative action programmes for the ethnic Malay majority.

The Malaysian government has said it would like to boost manufacturing productivity and add more value to exports.

Source: AFP 25.05.2009 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Malaysia-Singapore-eye-apf-15325817.html?.v=3

Filed under: Asia, Malaysia, News, Singapore, , , , , , , , , , ,

Asian stock exchanges find ways around falling volumes

The financial crisis has reduced profits for Asia’s stock exchanges, but they are finding a variety of opportunities to grow revenues.

It’s a tough time to be an Asian stock exchange. A new study by Celent finds all of them suffering lower trading volumes, lower margins and reduced profits as a result of the global financial crisis and the introduction of alternative trading systems — at a time when new regulations and risk management issues are likely to impose additional challenges. Click here for original article.
Exchanges are, however, finding a variety of ways to maintain their position, and in many ways, may be in a better position than counterparts in Europe and America to grow.

On average, Asian exchanges enjoyed robust growth in the years before the crisis, with an almost 30% compound annual growth rate in revenues from 2005 through 2007. But in 2008 this reversed: for example, Singapore’s exchange saw net profit down 40% in the first three quarters of 2008; Hong Kong’s exchange saw revenues fall by 10% and profits down 17% in 2008. The news is similar for others in the region.

These declines are due to the lack of listings and steep declines in both cash and derivative trading. These had a knock-on effect on other revenue-generating services offered by exchanges, including clearing and information products.

Celent reckons these losses are not going to be easily reversed in 2009. Exchanges are relying more on new initiatives to maintain their quasi-monopolistic positions and their profitability.

These include trying to attract cross-border listings in emerging markets, going head-to-head with the likes of NYSE, Nasdaq and the London Stock Exchange. The Korea Exchange, for example, has entered into equity stakes in the new bourses of Laos and Cambodia, partly in order to get new companies there to cross-list in Seoul. Singapore’s exchange has a partnership with the provincial government of Fujian to attract its companies. Hong Kong and Shanghai have signed a number of collaborative measures.

Trading is the biggest revenue generator, and has come under pressure from the rise of alternative systems such as Instinet and Liquidnet, and from the promotion of dark pools by broker dealers or the likes of ITG.

However, in Asia, such alternatives do not threaten exchanges as they have done in the United States, in part because Asian bourses enjoy monopolistic positions among fragmented, less liquid markets. This has prevented alternatives from being able to undercut the exchanges on pricing or service, despite the anonymity they offer. In Hong Kong, alternative platforms actually operate as members of the exchange.

Only in Japan is there a true alternative market, with 2% of all electronic trading executed on true off-exchange platforms, and crossing networks are popular.

Nonetheless the exchanges can’t be complacent, and are improving their products and their pricing. This includes upgrading their systems to be faster and accommodate more trades, and improving their market-data services. Singapore is working to attract more algorithmic traders, both through operational improvements and perhaps fee cuts. Korea Exchange’s introduction last year of KoreaCross, a VWAP anonymous electronic platform for local and international institutional investors, will also spur block trading. Taiwan is taking similar action.

Other important initiatives that are sweeping the region are the development of derivatives trading and cross-border initiatives.

With regulation likely to encourage the OTC derivatives market to move onto an exchange, exchanges are trying to develop products that are standardised and easy to use, but also provide the benefits of OTC trades. For example, Korea Exchange has begun a market-making scheme to provide liquidity to 10-year Korea treasury bond futures. It has also allowed Eurex to list, trade and clear daily futures on Kospi 200 options worldwide after Korean trading hours.

Southeast Asia has seen five nations form an Asean electronic trading link, which should allow investors in their markets to trade regional securities through local brokers. Other examples of international initiatives include the Tokyo Stock Exchange taking a 5% stake in SGX in 2007, as part of a plan to give Tokyo access to superior technology.

The next most active area for growth is in product development, with Islamic products at the forefront. The idea is to attract investment from the Middle East. Last year, SGX listed Singapore’s first sharia-compliant ETF covering 100 eligible Japanese companies. Carbon emission products are also expected to grow, with Japanese bourses at the forefront.

Taken together, these and other initiatives should be enough to keep Asia’s exchanges on the path to growth, thanks to the region’s strong economic fundamentals and GDP growth prospects.

Source: AsianInvestor.net, 25.05.2009 by Jame DiBiasio

Filed under: Asia, China, Exchanges, FIX Connectivity, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Library, Malaysia, Market Data, News, Singapore, Trading Technology, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Venezuela announces joint oil venture with Vietnam

President Hugo Chavez’s government says it is forming a joint oil company with Vietnam to exploit Venezuela’s heavy crude.

State-run Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, will cooperate with Vietnam’s state oil and gas monopoly, PetroVietnam, on oil exploration and production in Venezuela, according to a presidential decree in the Official Gazette issued Friday.  The company, to be called PetroMacareo SA, will operate in Venezuela’s eastern Orinoco River basin, and may also participate in transporting and selling oil, the decree said.  Under Venezuelan law, PDVSA’s partners may hold only a minority stake in oil production projects.

During a visit from Vietnamese President Nguyen Minh Triet in November, the two leaders discussed the possibility of building an oil refinery in Vietnam, and of cooperating with the Asian nation to build oil tankers. Chavez’s government has been forming joint oil ventures with allies ranging from Russia to China as Venezuela aims to diversify its oil clientele.

The United States remains the top buyer of oil from Venezuela, which is the fourth-largest oil supplier to the US.

Source: Forbes, 25.05.2009  click here for original article

Filed under: Energy & Environment, News, Venezuela, Vietnam, , , , , ,

Shenzhen Stock Exchange General Manager Song Liping : to develop a Multi-Level Capital Market

Song Liping, general manager of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, made a speech with the topic of “The New Opportunity for China’s Capital Market” during a panel discussion at the Lujiazui Forum. Song stressed the importance of developing multi-level capital market and diversified investment groups.

“Different enterprises at different stages need multi-level market to meet their different financing needs, and investors having different risk preference also need diversified investment groups to meet their needs.” Song said.

“Small and medium investors made prominent distribution to the liquidity of China capital market”, Song said. “It results in outstanding feature of short-term behavior of investors in the market; and the problem of homogenization phenomena in investment activities among institutions, especially among fund management companies, is also serious.”

For the progress of preparation of the new market, Song expressed that Shenzhen Stock Exchange was proceeding on doing research in other similar market in other countries so as to learn related experience and doing research in the sources of planned listed companies, and strengthening the preparation work for the trading system for the new market.

Song noted that Shenzhen Stock Exchange would accelerate the release of corresponding measures for the new market and make further requirement for enterprises and sponsors. Song also stressed that the late-developing advantages of emerging capital market status of China shall be drawn attention to.

Source: SZSE 19.05.2009

Filed under: Asia, China, Exchanges, News, , , , , ,

Fitch expresses concern about China’s loan cascade

The ratings agency points to early warning signs that indicate asset quality is deteriorating.

This year, China’s banks have opened the floodgates of credit: between January and the end of April, $757 billion worth of new loans were dished out, equivalent to 17% of the GDP in 2008. As such, China’s banks are enjoying a rate of growth that their Western peers would kill for. The increase in lending is the government’s doing, since it has given banks the task of financing the infrastructure spending that forms a large part of China’s stimulus package. Read original article.

Looking to the medium- to long-term, however, analysts are beginning to air concerns about what effect such a rapid increase in lending could have on the quality of the banks’ loan portfolios.

A report released yesterday by Fitch Ratings highlights issues with the banking sector’s $4.2 trillion corporate loan portfolio. The worry arises from the fact that China’s banks are increasing their corporate exposure at a time when corporate profits are declining.

“Ordinarily, falling corporate earnings are met with tightened lending, but in China precisely the reverse is happening,” said the report. This illustrates that “despite years of reform Chinese banks still retain an important policy function in upholding local enterprises”.

Infrastructure spending is not the only thing underlying the loan growth, according to the report. All the banks set a profit growth target. Since interest rates are down, the only way that banks can possibly meet their targets is by focusing purely on volumes. In the process of increasing the number of loans, it is more likely that money will be lent to commercially unviable projects. However, the banks don’t see this as a problem, since there is an implicit assumption that any coming losses will be paid for by the government.

Although bank earnings have held up well so far, Fitch points to what it calls “early warning signals” that indicate asset quality could be deteriorating.

One sign is that the banks are increasing the assessment rate for how much money should be kept aside for losses against unimpaired loans, which suggests that they expect greater losses to come from the loans that are currently considered performing. The banks are also reclassifying more special mention loans, a category of weak loans just one step from being a non-performing loan (NPL), into NPLs. Finally, the foreign banks, which have better risk management systems than the local banks, saw a rise in their NPLs in the first quarter.

But the full extent of the problem of future credit losses may not come to light for some time, for several reasons, said the report. The structure of corporate debt is such that the inability of the borrower to pay will not become apparent until the principal is due, which will often be years after the loan was made. Furthermore, it is a common practice in China to roll over loans by extending the maturity, which in effect postpones the bad news and allows the loan to remain classified as adequate.

Source: FinanceAsia.com, 23.05.2009 by  Daniel Inman

Filed under: Asia, Banking, China, News, Risk Management, Services, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Mexico: Battling China on Price

Businesses say Chinese-made items are pricier than Mexican if you consider costs associated with quality, logistics, and engineering changes.

Like many U.S. purchasing managers, Fred Heegan found himself under pressure over the “China price.” Heegan is vice-president for global parts sourcing for the North American manufacturing operations of Takata, the Japanese maker of automobile air bag, seat belt, and steering-wheel assemblies. Over the past couple of years, U.S. customers often pressed him to cut costs by pointing to a lower-priced part from China. Read original article here.

But Heegan pushed back. He would patiently counter with PowerPoint presentations showing that many Chinese-made items aren’t such bargains when one considers the costs associated with quality, logistics, and engineering changes. That’s why he argued to have most parts made near Takata’s factories in the U.S. and Mexico. “There are significant hidden costs to having supply lines that extend to China,” he says.

Heegan now looks like a visionary. Rather than only considering factors like labor and shipping rates and raw material prices, companies are increasingly calculating the “total cost of ownership,” tallying all of the direct and intangible costs and benefits linked to buying something in one place compared to another. Under this light, the China Price, which always seemed to be at least 40% below U.S. costs for everything from electronics products and bedroom furniture to high-end telecommunications gear, has not been as low as it seemed.

Dramatic Shift

Over the past three years, in fact, the once-formidable China Price edge has all but disappeared for a number of manufactured goods, according to a new study by Southfield (Mich.) consulting firm AlixPartners, To illustrate its point, Alix assessed the total cost of ownership of five categories of machined products, such as large, cast-aluminum engine parts requiring significant labor and small mass-produced plastic components requiring little labor.

Alix found there has been a dramatic cost shift since 2005. Then, the “total landed cost,” meaning price after an item had arrived at a West Coast shipping port, was 22% cheaper on average for Chinese parts than those American-made in the sample AlixPartners studied. By yearend 2008, however, the average price gap with the U.S. had dropped to a mere 5.5%, which is often not large enough to be worth the hassle of sourcing something from halfway around the world.

The more surprising reversal is the comparison with Mexico. While China was around 5% cheaper on average than Mexico in 2005, China is now 20% more expensive. Compared with the U.S., the Mexico Price edge widened to 25% from 16%. “A couple of years ago, outsourcing to China was a no-brainer” says AlixPartners Managing Director Stephen Maurer. “Right now, Mexico looks super attractive.”

To illustrate the change, Maurer cites a machined aluminum engine part, for which labor typically accounts for about 30% to 35% of the manufacturing cost. It would have cost $25 in 2005 to make that part in the U.S. The same part would have been made in China for $17. Today, he says, the U.S. price will have risen to $29. But the Chinese-made part will be $25. The Mexico Price? Around $20.

Currency Shifts

The biggest factors behind that sharp shift are currency and labor. The Mexican peso has lost nearly 20% against the U.S. since late 2005, while the Chinese yuan has appreciated by around 11%. On top of this, Chinese wages have steadily risen some 7% to 8% a year. Mexican wages also rose in peso terms, but measured in U.S. dollars Mexican labor rates plummeted.

Of course, some cost trends have shifted back in China’s favor since the onset of the global recession. Ocean shipping rates skyrocketed early last year as oil prices soared to $140 a barrel, but they have since crashed. But because AlixPartners’ calculations account for that because they are based on data at the end of 2008, by which time oil prices had already dropped.

China’s price edge could improve some more this year, but only by around one or two percentage points, Maurer says: “not enough to change your decision.”

China isn’t losing its export edge in every industry, of course. For example, the mainland still dominates the global garment, shoe, and toy industries, where abundant cheap labor is the biggest factor.

China also is still the king of consumer-electronics and personal-computer manufacturing. “What makes this industry sticky is that the entire supply chain is now in Asia,” says Michael Andrade, North America manager for Celestica, a giant Toronto electronics contract manufacturer. Transplanting that ecosystem to Mexico would take years. However, Andrade says production of higher-end electronics such as telecom switches and computer servers is returning to the Americas in order to be closer to U.S. customers.

Taxes and Shipping Time

Beijing policies have played a part in changing some sourcing patterns. One reason products involving metal-casting and chemical processes are pricier in China is that the government has stopped exempting exports from value-added taxes as part of a strategy to shift Chinese industry away from polluting factories. That decision added around 16% to the cost of work performed in China.

The 45-day average shipping time from China to the U.S. also has become a bigger issue because it adds to the inventory costs of suppliers and American importers. Inventory costs have become an even bigger issue during the recession, when it became more difficult for manufacturers to predict U.S. demand, forcing them to stash unsold products in warehouses for longer times.

The long lead times needed by Chinese factories can result in other unanticipated expenses. If a factory runs behind schedule on a badly needed component, for example, bulky items must be shipped by air at huge cost rather than by boat. Once they land in the U.S., the importer must pay premium trucking rates. “People were chasing nickels at the expense of huge supply-chain costs,” Maurer says.

That’s a major reason Heegan would rather buy parts close to where final assembly is done. He cites the example of automotive wire harnesses, insulated bundles of electrical conductors that can cost as little as $1 and are churned out by the millions. Heegan says he might be able to buy a harness from China for 15% less than would it would cost in Mexico.

Sluggish Design Changes

Trouble is, changes in wire-harness designs are required frequently. If a design change is required after a big batch of Chinese-made harnesses already was loaded on a boat from Shanghai, “that means four or five weeks of shipping and inventory costs are wasted on obsolete parts,” Heegan says. “That could eat up whatever we saved.”

Changing designs also can be complicated. “If I need answers from China, I have to go through time changes and go through an interpreter. I might solve the problem or I might not,” Heegan says. “If our suppliers are in in Mexico, they can be in our plant in hours.”

Some of the same considerations are starting to drive production shifts in electronics. Mexico lost a huge portion of its electronics industry to China after Beijing entered the World Trade Organization in 2001. Consumer electronics aren’t coming back. Nor is Mexico gaining in high-volume components such as computer circuit boards. But more production of higher-end equipment is starting to return.

Manufacturing cost is not the big driver, says Celestica’s Andrade. Instead, “what is drawing work back to the Americas is that customers are gaining a more sophisticated understanding that electronics are mission-critical to their environment,” says Celestica’s Andrade. “And there are risks to having an extended global supply chain.”

Holding Off on Major Moves

Despite the evolving economics, don’t expect a rapid migration of manufacturing out of China. The mainland is a vital market itself. And because of the recession, consultants say, most U.S. manufacturers are holding off on any major moves right now. Whatever they can save by returning to Mexico may not be worth the cost and effort of relocating an established, modern, and efficient plant with experienced managers and well-trained workers. Besides, says Maurer, “you don’t want to shift everything to Mexico—and then see the yuan drops like a stone and that China is cheap again.”

But observers like Maurer do believe they are witnessing the start of a structural shift in corporate strategic thinking that could determine where they put future production facilities. “There was a herd mentality, with many companies going to China for only a marginal benefit,” Maurer says. “A lot of work that went from Mexico to China probably shouldn’t have.” That stampede is apparently over.

Source: Business Week, 13.05.2009

Filed under: Asia, China, Latin America, Mexico, News, , , , , , , , ,

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Combo Decides On DMA

The newly merged Bank of America Merrill Lynch is scrapping the direct market access platform developed by Merrill and using one owned by Bank of America. As part of the integration of the firms’ electronic trading departments, the combined entity will mothball Merrill’s X-Trade in favor of BofA’s Instaquote.

Merrill’s X-Trade, developed internally, never gained sway among clients and could not compete with platforms like Goldman Sachs’ REDIPlus or Townsend’s RealTick (owned by Barclays). “The underlying technology and infrastructure for InstaQuote was better and more scalable,” said Roger Anerella, head of global execution services in the bank’s equities global markets division.

InstaQuote, which BofA acquired in 2004 from Direct Access Financial Corp., was a proven third-party trading platform. Several years ago, according to BofA, the platform had grown to more than 6,000 users, mostly from small and midsize hedge funds. “It’s a good solid prime brokerage product with a top-notch tech group,” said William Harts, former head of electronic trading services and equity strategy for Banc of America Securities, who now consults for financial services companies and exchanges.  Several dozen people from the original Texas-based technology group that BofA gained as part of the InstaQuote acquisition five years ago still develop, run and support the trading platform.

BofA-Merrill is continuing to offer clients a version of the Portware EMS, which is geared to portfolios, as part of a deal put in place two years ago. The broker-dealer’s algos and trading analytics are also integrated into all major buyside order management systems, proprietary OMSs and broker-neutral EMSs.

Source: TradersMagazine, 20.05.2009 by Nina Mehta

Filed under: News, Trading Technology, , , , , , ,

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